WANA (May 22) – Reports indicate that after Trump backed down from military action—driven on one hand by the high level of readiness within the Iranian Armed Forces, and on the other by the experiences of the Ramadan War—the American team has once again reverted to a strategy of exchanging texts and messages.

 

Accordingly, the exchange of texts between Tehran and Washington has now commenced and reached a critical juncture.

 

According to these reports, the United States has, for the first time, officially accepted three of Iran’s key demands:

  • An end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • The establishment of a war reparations fund.
  • A U.S. withdrawal from the region, culminating in the end of the naval blockade on Iranian ports.

 

This development unfolds as a fragile ceasefire continues through repeated extensions by Donald Trump, amid mounting domestic and international pressure on the White House to extricate itself from the quagmire of war.

 

Nevertheless, serious gaps remain over three main pillars: nuclear materials (the type and volume of enriched uranium), the right to enrichment alongside its verification mechanism, and the full release of Iran’s frozen assets remain under debate.

 

Meanwhile, three primary scenarios have emerged regarding the future of Iran-U.S. relations:

 

Comprehensive Agreement with Mutual Concessions

Should this materialize, the U.S. would back down on enrichment and materials (for instance, accepting 3% enrichment instead of 60% and the gradual release of assets), while Iran would accept IAEA oversight. This scenario demands high political will and “concession packages.”

 

Interim Agreement and Ceasefire Extension

The two sides reach a temporary agreement (e.g., for 6 months) under which the blockade is lifted, a reconstruction fund with a limited budget is launched, and enrichment is halted at current levels. Negotiations over materials and funds would be referred to expert-level panels. This scenario favors Iran, as time works to the benefit of rebuilding Tehran’s military and economic capabilities.

 

Escalation of Conflict

Should the U.S. insist on unacceptable conditions (such as the complete removal of uranium from Iran or accepting extensive monitoring and permanent restrictions), negotiations will rapidly hit a deadlock, and the fragile ceasefire will collapse. Consequently, the resumption of war, escalation of conflicts across multiple fronts, and a return to full-scale confrontational conditions must be expected.

 

Analytical Outlook

Experts believe that even if an agreement is reached under current conditions, Iran—by ending the blockade and the war in Lebanon—will have consolidated its hybrid deterrence (missiles, drones, regional presence) and will maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities as a red line. Nonetheless, accepting Iran’s terms signals a weakening of Washington’s deterrence in the region.

 

Within the United States, accepting reparations and ending the blockade leaves Trump vulnerable to attacks from Democrats, hawkish Republicans, and the Israeli lobby. However, his declining popularity and public pressure to end the war have compelled him to continue down the path of negotiation.

 

The reality remains that during this period of military silence, rather than calibrating its stance solely based on a negotiation scenario, Tehran is looking to stabilize and master its indigenous dominance over the regional theater.

 

Iran views this situation much like weaving a Persian carpet that, when completed, will display a beautiful and eye-catching pattern; the design of this carpet has been drawn, and it is ready to be put on the loom and woven.