Assessing Israel’s Renewed Threats Against Iran
WANA (Jul 02) – In recent days, Israel has escalated its public threats against Iran, warning of possible new attacks before the end of the week. These moves come as Iranian officials speak of full defensive readiness, while also acknowledging the serious risk of “operational secrecy” enabling a limited and surprise strike.
1. Escalating Threat Rhetoric and Psychological Targeting
Since the ceasefire between Iran and Israel in recent days, Israeli officials and media have issued warnings about “precise attacks” and “asymmetric measures” against Iran.
Observers believe this media campaign is part of Israel’s psychological deterrence strategy, which has reactivated following the exchanges of fire in the recent twelve-day conflict.
The post of the official Persian-language account of the Israeli regime on X which threatened Seyyed Abbas Araqchi , Social Media / WANA News Agency
The aims of this psychological warfare are multi-layered:
- To impose mental and psychological costs on Iranian decision-makers.
- To threaten retaliation for moves by the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
- To exert indirect pressure on the stalled nuclear negotiations with the West.
2. No Evidence of Readiness for Large-Scale War
Regional and Western sources monitoring Israeli military movements in recent days see no signs of immediate preparations for a full-scale operation.
Based on this assessment, Tel Aviv currently relies more on “psychological operations” than on planning a major attack.
3. Scenario of a Limited and Surprise Strike
Despite the lack of signs of a full-scale war, Iranian military analysts warn that the scenario of a “limited and precise strike” should not be dismissed.
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
In this context:
Israel may use psychological operations to cover and prepare for a limited action.
The goal could be to create shock, undermine Iran’s deterrence, or send a message to Tehran’s regional allies.
This scenario aligns with Israel’s doctrine of pinpoint and asymmetric strikes in recent years.
Also, consistent with Israel’s longstanding—and notorious—practice of targeted assassinations, this option remains highly plausible.
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4. Increased Drone and UAV Flights
One of Tehran’s serious concerns is the noticeable rise in reconnaissance drone and UAV flights over Iranian airspace in recent weeks.
According to security sources:
These flights have increased over western and southern Iran.
Likely objectives include gathering precise intelligence, mapping air-defense systems, and even conducting electronic warfare operations.
Such activities could serve as a prelude or complement to a limited, surprise attack.
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
5. Iran’s Position: Full Readiness, Avoiding the Trap of a Wider War
In response to Israel’s threats, Iranian officials have stressed the “full readiness” of their armed forces.
Air defense, missile, and drone systems have been placed on alert.
At the same time, Iranian officials have sought—through diplomatic and media channels—to show they are trying to avoid a new war.
This approach is twofold: on one hand, they threaten a strong response; on the other, they seek to avoid falling into the trap of a planned, large-scale conflict.
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Real Threat, Prominent Psychological Warfare
Overall, assessments indicate Israel’s threats have an especially strong psychological dimension at this time. Yet the danger of a real, limited, and calculated strike remains and cannot be ruled out.
By leveraging intelligence warfare and psychological operations, Israel aims to impose security, political, and psychological costs on Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran is working to maintain military readiness and send deterrent messages to prevent surprise attacks and avoid being drawn into an unwanted wider war.
