WANA (Nov 22) – The Caspian Sea has experienced a decline of approximately one meter in water levels in recent years, with forecasts suggesting a further drop of 1.5 to 2 meters by 2050.

 

Scientists attribute this alarming trend primarily to climate change and a 15–20% reduction in inflow from the Volga River. Rising salinity—from around 12.8 to 14–15 ppt—poses a serious threat to sturgeon populations, aquatic biodiversity, and the overall ecosystem.

 

In northern Iran, retreating shorelines—estimated at 300 to 500 meters—are expected to slash the southern Caspian coastal economy by 25–35%. Declining water levels are also affecting drinking water quality in coastal cities, with increased saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers.

 

Maritime industries and ports in Iran and Turkmenistan face operational challenges due to reduced water depth, with some ports functioning at only 40–60% capacity. The regional sturgeon and fisheries sectors are experiencing severe declines, threatening the viability of these industries.

 

Coastal retreat and environmental changes are also endangering tourism and reducing employment in service and economic sectors. The crisis has intensified migration from rural and small coastal towns, increasing social tensions.

 

Reduced river inflows and regional warming have damaged wetland ecosystems, destroyed habitats, and expanded hypoxic (low-oxygen) zones. While human activities such as dam construction, water extraction for agriculture, and water transfer have exacerbated the crisis, climate change remains the primary driver.

 

Experts suggest that effective responses should include cross-border cooperation, integrated water resource management, wetland restoration, water-efficient agriculture, and nature-focused tourism development.

 

Establishing a joint hydrological authority with participation from all littoral states, focusing on adaptation to new environmental conditions, is considered essential for preserving the Caspian ecosystem and promoting sustainable regional development.

WANA - Caspian Sea map

Caspian Sea map. Social media/ WANA News Agency