Day 14 of the War: Who Has the Upper Hand?
WANA (Mar 13) – The fourteenth day of the war between Iran on one side and the axis formed by the United States and Israel on the other presents a complex picture of a multilayered conflict—one unfolding not only in the skies and at sea, but also across the domains of intelligence, energy economics, and networks of regional actors.
In the early days, many analyses were built on the assumption that the primary objective of the war was to generate internal instability in Iran and possibly even lead to the collapse of its political structure. Yet nearly two weeks into the conflict, such a scenario has not materialized; in some areas, developments on the ground have even taken a different trajectory.
Beyond the list of military developments, examining five key factors—offensive capability, defensive posture, the Strait of Hormuz equation, the battle over energy infrastructure, and the activation of regional actors—can provide a clearer picture of the balance of power in this war.
People attend a gathering to support Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Fifteen Key Developments by Day Fourteen
1. U.S. and Israeli Air Superiority
In the air domain, the United States and Israel have managed to establish significant operational superiority. The use of advanced fighter jets, drones, and electronic warfare systems has allowed them to gain the upper hand in parts of Iranian airspace.
2. Iran’s Naval Advantage
In contrast, Iran has managed to establish effective control over its surrounding maritime environment. The growing insecurity of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints—has become an important leverage point for Tehran.
3. Assassinations at the Top of Iran’s Political and Military Structure
During the first days of the war, several senior Iranian political and military figures were targeted in assassination operations. However, the power structure was quickly reconstituted, and the third leader of the Islamic Republic was introduced.
4. Increased Iranian Intelligence Awareness
Iran appears to have improved its intelligence access regarding U.S. military movements in the region, enabling more precise targeting of certain American bases and equipment.
5. Continuity of Iran’s Offensive Capability
Despite the initial strikes, Iran’s missile and drone capabilities remain active. Attacks launched from multiple areas—from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to regions near Tel Aviv—have continued.
6. Entry of Iran’s Regional Allies
Armed groups in Iraq, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, have increased their attacks against Israel and U.S. interests.
7. Expansion of the Geography of Attacks
In response to military operations, Iran has targeted U.S. and Israeli interests in roughly ten countries.
8. Europe’s Caution in Entering the War
Countries such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have refrained from direct military involvement in the conflict.
9. Domestic Stability in Iran
Despite repeated calls for protests by figures such as Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, and Reza Pahlavi, there have been no signs of widespread unrest inside Iran.
10. Limited Attacks on Economic Infrastructure
Both sides carried out strikes on economic infrastructure, but these attacks were quickly halted.
11. Repelled Cyber Attacks
Iran has announced that it has neutralized several large-scale cyberattacks targeting its infrastructure.
12. Downing of Drones
Iranian air defense systems claim to have shot down more than one hundred American and Israeli drones.
13. Shock to the Energy Market
The insecurity of energy routes has caused a sharp rise in global oil prices.
14. No Prospect of a Ceasefire
No serious mediation channel has yet emerged to stop the war.
15. Damage to U.S. Bases
Some U.S. bases and radar systems in the region have reportedly been targeted.
People attend a gathering to support Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Five Decisive Factors on the Battlefield
1. Iran’s Offensive Capability
One of the most important questions at the start of the war was whether Iran could preserve its missile and drone capabilities.
After nearly two weeks, indications suggest that Iran’s offensive capacity remains active. Despite extensive attempts to destroy launchers and firing centers, Iran’s missile attacks have not only continued but have intensified on some nights.
Some reports indicate that Iran has begun using heavier warheads in the new phase of its strikes. As a result, parts of Israel have effectively shut down, and many residents have moved into shelters.
Israel, meanwhile, has largely focused its strategy on assassinating commanders and key figures. While these operations have inflicted short-term blows, Iran’s military command structure remains operational.
2. Defensive Posture
One of the less visible aspects of the early days of the war was Iran’s extensive use of low-cost drones to wear down enemy defensive systems.
In this phase, large numbers of drones were launched toward defense systems in order to force interceptors to expend expensive missiles at a rapid rate.
Reports indicate that interceptor missile consumption has been extremely high during this conflict. At the same time, some U.S. radar and early warning systems in the region have also been targeted.
Inside Iran, air defense systems remain active and, according to military sources, have downed dozens of advanced drones and even several enemy fighter jets.
3. The Strait of Hormuz Equation
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important points in the global economy, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passing through it.
Iran has not officially declared the strait closed, but the level of insecurity has risen to the point that shipping traffic has sharply declined.
The United States announced it was prepared to escort oil tankers, yet reports suggest that implementing such a plan has proven extremely difficult. As a result, global oil prices have surged, increasing pressure across international energy markets.
4. The Battle Over Energy Infrastructure
By targeting certain oil depots in Tehran, the United States and Israel opened a new dimension of the war.
In response, Iran launched attacks against Israel’s energy infrastructure and some U.S. energy interests in the region.
The outcome of this exchange was notable: both sides quickly stepped back from escalating attacks on energy infrastructure, recognizing that such strikes could push the global energy crisis to an uncontrollable level.
Smoke rises after a reported strike on Shahran fuel tanks, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
5. Activation of Regional Actors
One of the most significant factors shifting the balance in this war has been the gradual involvement of regional actors aligned with Iran.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased its attacks against Israel, turning northern Israel once again into an active front.
At the same time, reports have emerged about the potential involvement of Iran-aligned forces in Yemen. If realized, this could affect the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait and expand the theater of war from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
Taken together, these developments suggest that although the United States and Israel maintain clear superiority in the air domain, Iran has managed to complicate the strategic equation in other arenas—from control of critical energy routes to the continuation of its offensive capacity and the expansion of the conflict’s geographic scope.
In effect, these trends indicate that contrary to early assumptions of a highly asymmetrical confrontation, Tehran still retains the ability to impose significant strategic costs on its adversaries and prevent the opposing coalition from achieving decisive dominance.
