Five Days to the End of the JCPOA and Nuclear Restrictions
WANA (Oct 14) – With only five days remaining until October 17, 2025, Iran stands at the threshold of a historic turning point in its nuclear dossier. Under the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the UN Security Council is expected to remove Iran’s nuclear file from its agenda. However, the three European signatories — the UK, France, and Germany — have moved to trigger the so-called snapback mechanism, in what many experts describe as a politically motivated and legally invalid attempt to prevent the lifting of remaining restrictions, largely under U.S. pressure.
From Vienna to Washington: A Decade of Unfulfilled Promises
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 with the aim of lifting international sanctions in exchange for temporary limits on Iran’s peaceful nuclear program. Iran fully complied with its commitments — reducing enrichment levels, limiting centrifuges, and redesigning the Arak reactor — but Western parties, even under President Obama, failed to deliver on their economic promises.
The U.S. withdrawal from the deal in May 2018, coupled with Europe’s inability to compensate for the resulting damage, rendered the agreement effectively hollow. The European financial mechanism known as INSTEX produced no tangible results, leaving Iran deprived of the economic benefits it had been promised.
Diplomacy Against the Snapback Mechanism . JCPOA
The Legal Countdown: Resolution 2231 Nears Expiration
According to Paragraph 8 of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the Council is obligated to terminate all provisions of the resolution ten years after “Adoption Day” — on October 18, 2025. Legally, this date should mark the official end of nuclear restrictions and Iran’s exit from Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
The Snapback Claim: Political Theatre Disguised as Law
As this date approaches, the three European countries have invoked Articles 36 and 37 of the JCPOA, claiming to activate the “snapback mechanism.” Russia and China immediately rejected this move as illegal, arguing that after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, Europe lost any standing to invoke such provisions. Analysts view the European move as a political maneuver rather than a legal one — an effort to prevent Iran from returning to a normalized status in the international system.
Tehran’s Position: The Resolution Expires, Sanctions Do Not Return
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has stated that Resolution 2231 will expire automatically on October 17 and that any attempt to reimpose sanctions would be “null and void.” He described the European initiative as a misuse of legal procedures, emphasizing that once lifted, the sanctions cannot be reinstated.
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee, similarly asserted that after the resolution expires, Iran will no longer be bound by JCPOA limitations. “If the snapback claim is accepted, nothing will remain of the JCPOA, and Iran will pursue its independent path,” he said.
People walk past a billboard with a picture of nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strikes and Iranian centrifuges, on a street in Tehran, Iran August 29, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Snapback as Europe’s Psychological Warfare
According to international affairs expert Foad Izadi, divisions within the Security Council demonstrate that the snapback mechanism has not been formally activated. He described Europe’s behavior as “psychological warfare,” warning that media hype should not lead to domestic economic anxiety, as Security Council measures carry no automatic enforcement power against Iran.
The Legal Imperative: Securing Iran’s Position
Legal scholars note that since the U.S. and Europe have failed to uphold their obligations for years, they lack the legal authority to invoke the snapback mechanism. Without Russia and China’s consent, any Security Council decision would remain unenforceable. The head of Iran’s Bar Association has suggested that Tehran should submit academic legal notes to the UN Secretariat, formally documenting the expiration of Resolution 2231 as a binding legal fact.
Redefining Iran’s Foreign Policy Beyond the JCPOA
The sunset of the JCPOA could become an opportunity for Iran to redefine its foreign policy. After years of Western noncompliance, analysts argue that relying on domestic capacity, strengthening ties with non-Western powers, and expanding multilateral diplomacy represent Iran’s most rational course forward.
The Snapback Mechanism: Sanctions or the Code Name for a Psychological Operation?
WANA (Sep 28) – Activating the snapback mechanism is not just the reinstatement of UN resolutions; it feels more like a warning light being switched on, whose message is being sent into Iran: “pressure, isolation, and crisis.” But the question is whether this move is merely a dormant legal dispute or part of a more […]
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has also dismissed the European action as “legally baseless and politically confusing,” pointing out that “even the Europeans themselves cannot specify which sanctions they claim to have reimposed.” He characterized the move as “an act of obstinacy and alignment with U.S. pressure.”
A Costly Lesson in Realpolitik
For Iran, the JCPOA was never merely a nuclear agreement. It became a costly lesson in Western double standards, coercion, and selective legality. The experience revealed that even when Tehran engages in good-faith diplomacy, its Western counterparts resort to pressure and reinterpretation of obligations to undermine trust.
The unilateral U.S. withdrawal and Europe’s passivity demonstrated that in the logic of Western power, “the rights of nations” hold meaning only when they align with Western interests. In that sense, the JCPOA served as a classroom in realpolitik for Iran — one that underscored the enduring value of national strength, internal cohesion, and independence in the face of external pressure.
October 17, 2025, could mark not only the official end of a decade of nuclear restrictions but also the beginning of a new chapter in Iran’s political and strategic independence. If the Security Council adheres to the explicit text of Resolution 2231, Iran will formally exit Chapter VII of the UN Charter. But should Western powers persist in politicizing the law, Tehran still holds multiple options to assert its independent course in the evolving global order.
