WANA (Feb 21) – Iranian political analyst and journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin has warned that the United States may be pursuing what he calls a “12-day war model” in its approach to Iran, gradually raising demands and increasing pressure while signaling a potential path to war.

 

In an interview discussing recent tensions and the possibility of conflict between Iran and the U.S., Shamsolvaezin outlined several key points:

 

The “12-Day War” Model

The U.S. government is pursuing what I call the “12-day war model.” Initially, it presents an optimistic picture, sends positive signals, then gradually raises its demands and conditions, and finally sets a deadline, indicating that if Iran does not comply, war will begin. This model has effectively become the U.S. approach—especially under the Trump administration—toward international and regional issues.

 

Iran’s Defensive Leverage

Iran’s hands are not empty (without power). It stands on its own territory, while the opposing side is mostly at sea. The targets Iran can strike are capable of seriously challenging the U.S.’s stature. If capabilities exist to sink warships, these would also constitute Iran’s leverage against the United States.

 

Shift in Tone After Geneva

After the Geneva summit, the U.S. tone changed, and simultaneously, Israel’s tone became harsher. Defensive repositioning, heightened alerts, and the deployment of F‑22 jets, whose main mission is countering radar and air defense systems, all indicate the sensitivity of the situation. Trump has also set a 12–15 day deadline, and currently the issue is solely the nuclear file.

 

U.S. Strategy to Isolate Iran

The United States aims to remove Iran from the southern shield of the two nuclear powers, China and Russia. Washington views Iran as the weaker link in this chain and seeks to break this triangle to dominate energy resources. The question is whether China and Russia are willing to voluntarily relinquish their southern shield to the U.S. Many experts believe not, and China may quietly and discreetly assist Iran.

 

Strategic Uncertainties

Strategists’ main question is what would happen in the first or second hour of a war with Iran. If Iran prolongs the conflict, how would the U.S., which requires congressional approval, respond? The prevailing answer is that the Islamic Republic will not surrender easily. For this reason, I believe the situation is 50–50. Personally, I hope the shadow of war is removed from the homeland and that normalcy can be restored through agreement or de-escalation.

A woman walks past an anti-US billboard on a street in Tehran, Iran, February 17, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)