Iran–Israel Conflict Analysis – Issue No. 1
WANA (Jun 15) – In the opening days of the confrontation between Iran and Israel, battlefield dynamics are shifting rapidly. What initially began with Israel’s intelligence superiority and reliance on internal influence is now being overturned. The Islamic Republic of Iran, leveraging its missile capabilities, has seized the initiative and disrupted Israel’s calculations.
Page One: The End of Intelligence Surprise
Israel began the conflict with certain advantages — surprise attacks and an internal intelligence network within Iran. However, field evidence suggests this edge is fading. Iran’s security apparatus, through counter-infiltration efforts, has regained operational control and returned the initiative to its military command.
Page Two: Weakness in Retaliatory Firepower
A critical weakness in Israel’s strategy lies in its overreliance on drones and fighter jets. While these tools are effective in precision strikes, they fall short in delivering the heavy, sustained firepower required for prolonged warfare. In contrast, Iran has used long-range precision missiles to generate substantial fire volume, tipping the balance of firepower in its favor.
Day three of Iran-Israel war — Massive IRGC barrage hits Israel / WANA News Agency
Page Three: Striking the Depth of Tel Aviv
The strike on Tel Aviv’s strategic depth marked a turning point. This move shattered previously established red lines and forced Israel into a defensive posture, prompting largely symbolic responses. The retaliatory attacks by Israel served more as a demonstration of deterrence and face-saving than as effective military operations.
Page Four: Cohesive Command, Intact Infrastructure
One of Iran’s key strengths in maintaining its offensive momentum has been the preservation of its missile infrastructure. This capability — especially under the leadership of the new commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force — has been reinforced by a spirit of initiative and offensive posture. The new command has not only maintained the pattern of response but has transformed the battlefield into a platform for asserting Iran’s politico-military will.
What is unfolding is not merely a missile exchange, but a major test for the doctrines of deterrence and balance of power in the region. Early signs suggest a shift in regional equilibrium — and this is only the first in a series of analyses that may uncover new dimensions of this evolving conflict in the weeks ahead.
This morning’s situation in Tel Aviv as seen through the lens of an Israeli photographer, 15 June 2025
