Iranian Analyst: “Time Is Working Against the United States”
WANA (Mar 12) – Iranian economist, journalist, and university professor Saeed Leilaz said that time is working against the United States in the ongoing confrontation with Iran, arguing that Iran currently holds the advantage both materially and strategically.
Leilaz stated that Iran is “not losing by a margin of 100 to zero,” claiming that the country is ahead in both human and material terms. He added that the passage of time could place increasing pressure on Washington, though he warned that the United States might resort to “unethical or aggressive actions,” which he said had historical precedent.
War Damage and Economic Impact
According to Leilaz, about 20,000 residential units have been destroyed during the conflict. While acknowledging that the damage is significant, he argued that Iran’s economy is large enough to absorb the losses.
He said that despite the destruction during what he described as a 12-day war, indicators from the Statistical Center of Iran suggest the country’s economy has returned to its previous trajectory. He added that Iran’s economic problems predated the war.
Leilaz also alleged that certain attacks—such as the reported targeting of a school in Minab—were carried out deliberately to weaken public morale.
Strait of Hormuz and Energy Markets
Leilaz emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that Iran now effectively holds control over the waterway.
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“For 30 years Iran has said it could close the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “Now the management of this critical chokepoint is in our hands.” He added that Iran has exported around 11 million barrels of oil since the start of the war.
He argued that the importance of the strait goes beyond oil shipments, noting that natural gas exports from several regional countries have been severely disrupted. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), he explained, requires complex and expensive technology for compression and transport, making disruptions particularly significant.
Global Economic Impact
Leilaz said the rising energy prices could have global economic consequences. According to his assessment, every 10% increase in oil prices raises global inflation by about 4% and reduces global GDP by roughly 2%. He claimed that energy prices have already increased by more than 20%, forcing Western countries to draw on their strategic reserves.
“The most important point,” he added, “is that they never imagined Iran would be capable of doing something like this.”
Domestic Production and Food Security
Despite longstanding challenges facing Iran’s agricultural sector, Leilaz said the country now produces around 150 million tons of food, which he noted is seven times higher than production levels in 1979, when the Iranian Revolution took place.
He added that while Iran’s population has doubled since then to about 90 million people, the country is unlikely to face famine. Leilaz also pointed to the development of domestic value chains in industries such as steel, petrochemicals, cement, and home appliances, saying these advances have occurred despite international sanctions and management challenges.
People walk on a street with a banner of Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei with late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and late supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the background, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 10, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
