WANA (Jun 19) – As tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv continue to escalate and fears mount over the prospect of direct military conflict, an old yet powerful option has returned to the forefront of strategic discussions: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

This narrow but vital waterway, through which a significant portion of the Persian Gulf’s oil exports pass, is once again being viewed as a key geopolitical leverage point for Iran.

 

The World’s Energy Lifeline in a Narrow Strait

According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), roughly 20 million barrels of oil—about one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade—pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily.

 

At its narrowest point, the strait measures just 33 kilometers across, with even narrower navigable shipping lanes. Any disruption in this critical chokepoint could send oil prices soaring and ripple through global energy supply chains.

 

Markets Braced for the Next Shock

This mere possibility was enough to jolt global energy markets in recent days. Following Israeli strikes, Brent crude, which had been trading around $65 per barrel, surged 13% in a single day to exceed $74.

 

Economists warn that the real threat isn’t just the risk of armed conflict, but the cascading economic fallout, ranging from electricity bills in Europe to fuel costs for households across East Asia.

 

Deterrence or Full-Scale War?

Analysts caution that a complete closure of the Strait would cross red lines drawn by the United States and its allies. The presence of U.S. naval forces and operational bases in the Persian Gulf significantly raises the risk of military retaliation.

 

According to the Financial Times, U.S. officials are deeply concerned that rising oil prices could drive domestic gasoline prices above $5 per gallon and trigger a 5–8% drop in U.S. stock markets.

 

Tehran’s Strategic Card in a Global Chessboard

In today’s geopolitical climate, the Strait of Hormuz is more than a shipping route—it’s a strategic tool in Iran’s diplomatic arsenal. Leveraging control over this chokepoint allows Tehran to shift the balance of power and pressure adversaries into negotiation. Though the move carries significant risks, its very volatility also makes it a powerful deterrent.

 

Brigadier General Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee, stated on June 13 that the option of closing the Strait is currently under review, adding that Iran will make a firm and calculated decision when necessary.

 

J.P. Morgan has also warned that in the event of a full-scale military conflict and the complete shutdown of the Strait—which sees nearly 20% of the world’s oil flow daily—crude prices could spike to $120–130 per barrel. Such a shock, the bank warns, could accelerate the collapse of the U.S. economy, already burdened with $36 trillion in debt.

Strait of Hormuz. Social media/ WANA News Agency