WANA (May 19) – Declining fertility rates, a record drop in births, and rising life expectancy are pushing Iran into a new demographic phase — one that experts describe as the beginning of an aging population era. Health officials warn that if current trends continue, Iran could face a sharp decline in its working-age population and a significant rise in the elderly population within the next two decades, a shift that may heavily affect the economy, labor market, and healthcare system.

 

Alireza Raisi, Iran’s Deputy Health Minister, announced during a National Population Week press conference that the country’s fertility rate, which stood at around 6.5 children per woman in the 1980s, has now fallen to 1.35. The figure remains well below the global replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the minimum rate needed to maintain a stable population across generations.

 

At the same time, birth rates continue to decline. According to Raisi, only 892,268 births were registered in Iran in 2025, marking the first time annual births have dropped below 900,000. Just two years ago, annual births in the country were still around one million.

 

Meanwhile, the country’s death toll remains relatively high. Official figures show that more than 451,000 deaths were recorded in 2025. As a result, the gap between births and deaths — once exceeding half a million people annually — has narrowed considerably, intensifying concerns over slowing population growth.

People walk in Tehran Bazaar, in Tehran, Iran, May 16, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Experts say several economic and social factors have contributed to the decline in childbearing, including rising living and housing costs, delayed marriage, changing lifestyles, expanded higher education, and economic uncertainty.

 

Reza Saeedi, Director General of Population and Family Affairs at the Health Ministry, described Iran’s current demographic situation as “unfavorable.” He warned that within the next two decades, as the large generations born in previous decades enter old age, the elderly could make up between 20% and 30% of the country’s population. According to him, this trend could eventually push Iran’s population growth rate to zero by 2041.

 

He added that after that point, population growth could even turn negative — a scenario already experienced by several developed countries, often accompanied by labor shortages, pressure on pension systems, and rising healthcare costs.

 

Alongside declining births, rising life expectancy is also reshaping Iran’s demographic structure. The Deputy Health Minister said life expectancy in Iran, which was below 55 years before the 1979 revolution, has now increased to around 74 to 76 years. Improved healthcare services, expanded vaccination programs, lower infant mortality, and broader access to medical care were cited as key reasons behind the increase.

 

Raisi stressed that an aging population is not necessarily a threat on its own. However, he warned that aging becomes a crisis when large numbers of elderly people suffer from chronic illnesses, disabilities, and heavy dependence on healthcare services. He said that “healthy and active seniors” can remain a valuable social and economic asset, but a rise in unhealthy elderly populations would place major financial pressure on the healthcare system.

Tehran, Iran October 23, 2020. Picture taken October 23, 2020. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Official statistics show that around 69% of Iran’s population currently falls within the 15–64 age group, considered the country’s economically active population. Another 22% are under the age of 15, while roughly 8% are over 65. Demographers warn that if fertility rates remain low, the share of working-age citizens will shrink significantly in the coming decades, disrupting the country’s population balance.

 

At the same time, health authorities have also raised concerns over Iran’s high rate of cesarean deliveries. According to the Health Ministry, nearly 60% of births in the country are performed via C-section, with 38.5% of those procedures occurring during first-time pregnancies — a figure far above international standards.

 

Iranian officials say measures such as implementing the country’s “Youthful Population Law,” expanding infertility treatment services, supporting young couples, promoting childbirth, reducing unnecessary C-sections, and preventing abortions are among the policies currently being pursued to counter the country’s aging population trend.