Iraq’s Strategic Role in the Iran-U.S. Rivalry
WANA (Sep 29) – Baghdad’s joining of the U.S. campaign to impose an air blockade on Iran has sparked considerable debate and controversy in recent days. Although Baghdad’s move generated a great deal of noise, it was neither particularly unpredictable nor unexpected.
In Iraq itself, Iran’s allies have also protested the decision and put pressure on the al-Zaydi government to reverse it. Meanwhile, it is said that Najaf Airport may potentially be reopened to Iranian aircraft.
The reality is that Iraq today is more than any other country at the center of attention of the United States, Saudi Arabia and other rivals of Iran. Riyadh does not want the experience of Yemen to be repeated along its northern borders.
The United States, meanwhile, has also changed course in its strategy toward Iraq. Washington, which for more than two decades had sought to manage competition and tensions with Tehran, is now pursuing a strategy of “eliminating the rival.”
Trump’s direct involvement in the process of selecting Iraq’s prime minister and his open opposition to Nouri al-Maliki’s return to power, or efforts to disarm armed groups close to Iran, are all signs of this new policy.
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Alongside these developments, Iraq has a highly vital position, after the UAE, in Washington’s strategy of economically strangling Iran by targeting its trading partners and neighbors.
Due to its geostrategic position in regional balances, particularly in the competition and conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Israel on the other, Iraq has particular geopolitical importance. Following Israel’s regional wars after October 7, 2023, this importance has increased further.
At this sensitive stage of the war, each side is trying to use its levers of influence to push the other aside in Iraq. The tools used by the two sides are also mostly different.
Iran has placed its greatest reliance on the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the most organized military, political and security formation in Iraq; in addition, it is seeking to make use of its close relations with Iraqi political movements, parties and figures.
However, contrary to popular perception, U.S. pressure levers are not necessarily military or hardware-based, because if U.S. influence depended solely on its military presence, this tool would disappear with the withdrawal of American forces.
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Washington’s influence is more “soft” and depends, on the one hand, on the United States’ political, military and economic standing in the international system and, on the other, on its influence within Iraq’s layers of power.
Alongside these factors, two other elements complement U.S. influence in Iraq. First is Washington’s control over Iraq’s economic lifeline. Iraq’s oil revenues have been deposited in an account at the U.S. Federal Reserve since 2003, and withdrawing or spending this money is effectively impossible without the full approval and coordination of the U.S. government.
Even if the United States had no influence over Iraq’s political structure, this financial lever alone would be sufficient to pressure Baghdad and force it to comply with Washington’s demands.
The second factor is that over the past decade, a group of politicians has emerged in Iraq who are at odds with Iran. They do not want to define Baghdad in an ideological and geopolitical relationship with Tehran.
At the same time, this contradiction is clearly visible in Iraq’s political landscape: the Coordination Framework, as the parliamentary majority, is Iran’s main ally and forms the backbone of the government.
Yet, as a result of the factors mentioned above, matters have reached the point where the selection of the prime minister has effectively been taken out of their hands.
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A prominent example is the rise to power of Ali al-Zaydi, which he attributes to Trump’s pressure to eliminate Iran’s preferred candidate. The outcome of this complicated situation is that Baghdad’s government decision-making apparatus, when making major decisions, takes the American side’s considerations into account more than Iran’s.
For this reason, the United States has been able to steer Iraq’s sovereign decisions in line with its regional policies.
Under such circumstances, if the Iraqi government succeeds, through consultations with the United States, in exempting Najaf Airport from the campaign to impose an air blockade on Iran, this should not be regarded as a major shift in the balance of influence.
Such an agreement would be more a result of Washington’s concern over Iraq becoming insecure, which could weaken the central government and pave the way for a greater role for military groups allied with Iran, while Washington is relying on the central government more than ever to limit Tehran’s influence.
This shows that the United States also faces limitations in making maximum use of its influence. Iran’s influence, which mainly relies on the PMF, is also currently facing limitations in using its hard-power role; however, if the region experiences widespread insecurity in the future, employing this role cannot be ruled out.
