WANA (Jul 20) – The prospect of Israel implementing its Lebanon scenario in Iran is a possibility that some analysts are not ruling out — despite the significant differences between the Iranian and Lebanese contexts.

 

The war between Israel and Iran came to a halt after 12 days. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire — notably described as a halt rather than a conclusion to the conflict. This distinction has been repeatedly emphasized by analysts across various media outlets, from television channels to newspapers and websites, pointing to the possibility of renewed hostilities. However, there is still no clear consensus in the media about what the next phase of this confrontation might look like. One scenario gaining attention is what has come to be known as the “Lebanon model.”

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

What Is the Lebanon Model?

Applying the Lebanon model to Iran would involve Israel launching targeted assassinations and intermittent strikes — both on residential and non-residential areas — at irregular intervals. This is the same tactic Israel has employed in recent years, particularly since the events of October 7, against senior and mid-ranking commanders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, especially in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and parts of Syria. The irregular timing of these attacks is central to this model; the conflict is not continuous but episodic.

 

In this scenario, Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, plays a critical role. One of the goals of this strategy, modeled after Lebanon, could be to increase internal pressure on the central government or provoke domestic unrest. According to statements by senior Iranian officials, this aligns with what they see as one of Israel’s strategic objectives in its attacks on Iran. These operations could take various forms.

Mourners gather during a mourning ceremony for late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes last year, in Tehran

Mourners gather during a mourning ceremony for late Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, who were killed in Israeli airstrikes last year, in Tehran, Iran, February 23, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Now that the long-standing taboo of direct confrontation between Iran and Israel has been broken, any serious Israeli action is likely to be met with an equally serious Iranian response. Intermittent attacks following the ceasefire — and Iran’s retaliatory strikes — mark a new phase in this conflict dynamic.

 

Unlike Lebanon, Iran not only possesses the capacity but also the willingness to respond forcefully. This type of confrontation could potentially continue without limit — with public dissatisfaction seen as a key pressure point and central pillar of the strategy.