WANA (Apr 08) – After weeks of confrontation, a temporary 15-day ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and its allies has been announced, while negotiations to solidify it are still ongoing.

 

Different narratives have emerged to explain this sudden halt in fighting. Some analyses argue that the ceasefire is not the result of a balanced agreement, but rather the consequence of the opposing side’s failure to achieve its stated objectives.

 

This perspective attempts to present an alternative view of the balance of power by pointing to political and field developments—one that can be outlined through ten key points.

 

  1. The United States failed to achieve its most important strategic goal—overthrowing the Islamic Republic—turning it into an unattainable ambition for Washington and its allies. In this regard, Iran’s adversaries effectively suffered a major defeat.
  2. Donald Trump and his allies had claimed they would destroy Iran’s military capabilities through force; they now acknowledge that this goal appears unrealistic.
  3. The U.S. and its partners had aimed to bypass political agreements and use military force to remove Iran’s nuclear materials and force submission. In this area, they faced what is described as a historic failure.
  4. Washington had demanded limits on Iran’s missile capabilities, threatening military action otherwise. However, in Iran’s 10-point proposal—reportedly accepted by Trump—there is no indication of such restrictions.
  5. The U.S. and its allies had planned to weaken Iran through military strikes and by activating separatist groups. These efforts, however, were neutralized early and failed to materialize.
  6. The stated goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz through military means was not achieved. Instead, Iran’s preconditions regarding a new legal framework for the strait were reportedly accepted as a basis for negotiations.
  7. While the U.S. and its allies had called for regime change, not only did the Islamic Republic remain in place, but it also strengthened its position, rejecting a 15-point proposal and advancing its own 10-point plan.
  8. In the field of air defense, the U.S. and its allies are described as having suffered setbacks that could mark a turning point in military assessments.
  9. The perceived damage to U.S. military credibility may have broader implications, potentially affecting the global security order and altering existing power structures.
  10. Regional allies of the United States are said to have reconsidered their reliance on Washington, a shift that could lead to significant developments in international relations moving forward.

 

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Statement on Two-Week Ceasefire

WANA (Apr 08) – The Full Text of the Supreme National Security Council Statement on the ceasefire is as follows:   “The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historical, and crushing defeat. By the grace of the pure and holy blood of the Martyred Leader […]

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