“Jan-e Iran”: Public Mobilization Against Population Aging
WANA (May 29) – At a time when the streets of Iran’s major cities are growing noticeably older, the country’s urban billboards and media programming are witnessing the birth of a new narrative.
Moving beyond government decisions and legislation, Iranian society—following the recent war by the US and Israel against the country, which became known as the “Ramadan War”—has transformed into an arena for major grassroots movements.
This wave of social solidarity previously sought to resolve societal issues through the people themselves via initiatives like “Jan-Fada” (Life-Sacrificers) and “Jan-Fada Couples.” Now, in a major pivot, it has directly targeted one of the greatest anxieties regarding the country’s future: the crisis of empty cradles.
A new national movement called “Jan-e Iran Campaign” (The Soul of Iran Campaign) has launched under the slogan “Give Life to Iran.” Its goal is to invite families to play an active role in the future of Islamic Iran.
Through this campaign, mothers who will give birth to children in Iran over the coming year can register their information on designated platforms and systems, where grassroots population-focused groups will stand by their side to support them.
But what realities lurking beneath the surface have made launching these social platforms an urgent necessity?
Jan-e Iran national campaign billboards across the city. Social media/ WANA News Agency
Part I: 14 Million Youths Crunching the Numbers
To better understand the narrative, one only needs to look at the statistics cited by Fatemeh Mohammad-Beigi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s Health and Treatment Committee: there are 14 million young people of marriageable age.
This figure highlights a massive paradox in Iran: a society that, on one hand, possesses a massive capital in its youth, but on the other hand, sees these same young people facing high walls when trying to pass through the gates of marriage and start a life together.
Data from Iran’s National Population Headquarters shows that the average age of first marriage has risen to 24.1 years for women and 28.2 years for men.
The direct consequence of this situation is a chain reaction of delays in life milestones: the phenomenon of “late marriage,” followed closely by “delayed childbearing.” Statistics reveal that today, the time gap between a wedding and the birth of the first child in Iran has reached nearly 5 years, while the gap between the first child and the next is close to 6 years.
When these five-year and six-year gaps accumulate one after another, they manifest their impact on the country’s macro-statistics: the number of registered marriages in Iran has plummeted by 50% from its booming days in 2010 (with over 891,000 cases) to about 431,000 cases; meaning that the rate of family formation has practically been cut in half.
The Iranian Paradox: The Plunge in Divorce Rates During the War
WANA (May 12) – Niloufar stood in the single room of her parents’ house, in front of her old mirror, looking at the white veil that her mother was hurriedly adjusting over her head. The faint sound of air defense fire in the distance gave an irregular rhythm to her heartbeat. Ahmad stood beside […]
Part II: When Death Lines Outpace Births
The direct and natural consequence of the halving of marriage rates is that the average childbearing rate per woman in Iran has dropped, reaching the figure of 1.34. A look at the details of issued birth certificates shows that this retreat has occurred at all stages of family life:
- The birth of the first child has decreased by more than 8% compared to last year.
- The birth of the second child has also declined and retreated.
- And the birth of the third child (despite all the prizes and legal incentives) has experienced a significant drop.
Today, more than 72% of all births in Iran are limited to just the first and second child, and the third cradle rocks less often.
Experts warn that Iran’s window of opportunity to stay young is rapidly closing. Predictions show that if this societal behavior does not change, within the next 14 years, the number of deaths in Iran will surpass the number of births.
A country that until recently boasted a very young society will face a surge in the elderly population in the coming decades and may become the oldest country in the region; to the point where international estimates report the possibility of Iran’s population shrinking to the range of 31 million people in the future decades.
Iran’s Population Warning Light Turns Red
WANA (May 19) – Declining fertility rates, a record drop in births, and rising life expectancy are pushing Iran into a new demographic phase — one that experts describe as the beginning of an aging population era. Health officials warn that if current trends continue, Iran could face a sharp decline in its working-age population […]
Part III: The Formula for Solving the Puzzle; The Intersection of Law, Economics, and Grassroots Organizations
Despite all these alarming statistics, the lock on this crisis can be picked. Recent experiences have shown that if the right path is chosen, changing societal behavior is entirely possible.
As a successful example, Amir-Hossein Bankipour, head of the Parliament’s Youthful Population Commission, citing an academic study, announced that by reforming health inspections and cultural initiatives, the annual abortion rate in the country saw a 52% decrease, dropping from 530,000 to 254,000 cases—a figure that demonstrates corrective movements actually work in practice.
But what is the main knot that needs to be untied? According to a large-scale, official survey, 75% of young people declared economic conditions as their primary barrier to having children.
Silver Rings and Frozen Dreams
WANA (Jan 02) – In the heart of Tehran’s Goldsmiths’ Bazaar—where the sound of hammers on gold once blended with the clamor of grooms competing to buy the heaviest jewelry sets for their brides—a heavy silence now prevails. “Saeed,” a newlywed, is staring at the gold shop storefront with his family, watching their shrunken dreams. […]
Experts argue that for grassroots campaigns like “Jan-e Iran” to achieve ultimate success, the government must make its financial and welfare support more realistic and closer to the support models of successful countries, through actions such as:
- Allocating greater financial support packages to young people for marriage and childbearing.
- Creating new support initiatives, such as providing housing with lower rent percentages to couples and individuals with two or more children.
- Guaranteeing and strictly enforcing the 9-month maternity leave for mothers and 2 weeks for fathers.
- Providing remote work options and reducing working hours for mothers with young children.
- Launching workplace daycares and constructing dormitory rooms for married students.
The Horizon Ahead
Today, Iran stands at a critical crossroads; a place where it still possesses a young and energetic population, but time to utilize this golden opportunity is running out. Campaigns like “Jan-e Iran,” which have entered the arena today under the slogan “Give Life to Iran,” are a new window to find a solution for this problem from within society through grassroots organization and resource management.
The success of this new formula depends entirely on how this wave of facilitation by organizations will be supported and complemented by tangible government financial aid and economic stability in the daily lives of families.
