Latest Assessment of a Potential Iran–Israel Confrontation
WANA (Dec 17) – The prevailing assessment at Iran’s decision-making levels is that another confrontation with Israel has become inevitable—not in the sense that war will necessarily begin tomorrow, but in the sense that the old logic of deterrence no longer functions as it once did.
Israel, following the 12-day war and without achieving a decisive victory, has concluded that a prolonged state of limbo poses a greater long-term security risk than the dangers of a controlled confrontation.
At present, the main disagreement is not over whether a clash will occur, but over its timing, form, and arena.
People walk next to an anti-Israeli banner, following the Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
The key question is whether the next confrontation will be:
- direct or proxy-based,
- limited and episodic or multi-front,
- primarily military or accompanied by internal security pressures.
These differences themselves are telling: no one is seeking an immediate, classic war, yet everyone is preparing for one. This is the dangerous gray zone—where war is not the result of a sudden decision, but the outcome of a prolonged process of calculated attrition.
Israel understands well that a major conflict with Iran, without U.S. backing, would be a strategic gamble. That is why a significant part of Tel Aviv’s recent activity has been political and narrative-driven rather than purely military.
The emphasis by Western and Israeli media on claims such as Iran’s “ability to fire 2,000 missiles per day” is not merely threat inflation. It is a tool serving two objectives simultaneously.
Iran’s “capacity to launch 2,000 missiles per day. Social media / WANA News Agency
The first is to prepare global public opinion to justify a preemptive strike. When a threat is magnified to this extent, any initial attack on Iran can be reframed as “legitimate self-defense.” This is an old security logic: exaggerate the danger, and aggression appears rational.
The second objective is more complex—and more important: managing the mindset of the Iranian public.
The constant repetition of the figure “2,000 missiles” creates an artificial expectation. If a war were to occur and Iran’s response—due to operational, political, or tactical considerations—fell short of that number, the damage would not be to military capability, but to social morale.
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This follows the familiar psychological-warfare pattern of “rise, drop, and collapse”: expectations rise, reality comes in lower, and a psychological gap is created.
Meanwhile, realistic assessments indicate that Iran’s missile capability is not at its final peak, but at a stage comparable to June 13—the point after which an upward trajectory began. It is precisely this growing trend that most concerns Tel Aviv.
From this perspective, the shadow of war that Israel keeps hanging over Iran is not merely about deterrence. It is part of a multilayered project designed to link military confrontation with internal unrest.
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Evidence of this trajectory is not scarce:
Efforts to organize what is described as a “popular front” in Sistan and Baluchestan—a phenomenon with local roots, yet not disconnected from external provocation.
Meetings between Reza Pahlavi and figures from the monarchist current with Israeli officers, including requests for equipping and activating internal cells.
Consultations between the Mossad and certain CENTCOM units with armed groups in Kurdistan to plan harassment operations, transfer weapons, and create field cover for external attacks.
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WANA (Dec 13) – Last week, Khosrow Alikordi, a human rights lawyer from Mashhad, passed away from a heart attack at his office. Initially, his death was officially attributed to a heart attack, but it quickly became a media topic. Some media outlets critical of the Iranian government, disregarding official reports, deemed Alikordi’s death suspicious […]
Taken together, these elements form a single picture: the strategic objective is internal chaos, not merely a military strike.
The opposing side’s conclusion from the twelve-day war is clear. The scenario of “external attack to activate internal fault lines” backfired. Not only did those fault lines fail to open, but social cohesion increased. Therefore, this time the sequence must be reversed: first internal tension, then its linkage to external pressure.
At the tactical level, this translates into creating limited unrest, small-scale clashes, the infiltration of armed cells, and the advancement of a casualty-production strategy—an all-too-familiar pattern repeatedly tested across the region.
Iranian missiles are displayed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran, Iran, November 12, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Under these conditions, Iran’s central challenge is not simply the number of missiles it possesses, but the preservation of social cohesion and the management of public expectations.
Deterrence today is not defined solely by launchers; it is also shaped in the collective mind of society.
And until a military confrontation begins, Israel has a clear mission: to keep the shadow of war hanging over Iran.
