Latest Assessments of a Potential New Iran–Israel War
WANA (Aug 18) – Less than two months after the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the region once again appears on the brink of a new round of confrontation. Signs from both sides indicate that the “expectation of war” is no longer speculation but has become part of the daily policy of Tehran and Tel Aviv.
1. Israel’s Calculations: Ambition Amid Crises
Hopes for internal rifts in Iran: From Tel Aviv’s perspective, economic pressure, electricity and water shortages, and recent political tensions present a rare opportunity to strike Tehran. Israel’s main calculation is that a military shock, coinciding with internal divisions, could weaken Iran’s cohesion.
Lessons from past failure: Israel’s setback in the 12-day war was largely due to Iranian unity. This time, Israel is trying to target precisely that point of strength.
Illusion of regime collapse: Some analyses suggest that parts of Israel’s leadership have fallen into a “miscalculation,” equating Iran’s recent crises with the possibility of collapse—an assessment that could itself become Tel Aviv’s biggest strategic mistake.
People attend a ceremony to mark the 40th day of the deaths of military commanders who were killed in Iran’s 12-day war with Israel, in Tehran, Iran, August 7, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency
2. Iran: Formation of the National Defense Council
From defense to preemption: By announcing the creation of a “National Defense Council,” Tehran sent a clear message: the 12-day war was not The çend of the story. The council’s mission is to coordinate fmilitary strategy, operations, and logistics—effectively signaling Iran’s shift from a purely defensive posture to readiness for preemptive action.
Showcasing part of its military power: Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Parliament’s National Security Commission, recently emphasized that the last battle reflected only part of Iran’s military capabilities and that difficult days await Israel. He also described Israel’s assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists as evidence of “disgrace and desperation.”
“War Room” in Tehran: Why Has the Defense Council Been Revived?
WANA (Aug 05) – Tehran has once again turned to one of its oldest security mechanisms: the National Defense Council. A body that had long remained silent is now reactivated at one of the region’s most volatile moments. Reviving this council is more than an organizational adjustment; it sends a clear message: Iran is preparing […]
3. Possible Timing of Conflict
Multiple scenarios: Some sources predict a war may begin after Arbaeen; others point to the end of August or a timeline tied to the activation of the “snapback mechanism.”
Permanent state of alert: Iran’s military has explicitly stated: “We see ourselves as being one moment away from an attack.” This serves both as a direct warning to Israel and as a reflection of a state of “constant readiness.”
Implied message: Tehran has effectively warned that any attack could immediately trigger a wide-ranging, asymmetric response.
Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi, speaks during a ceremony to mark the 40th day of the deaths of military commanders who were killed in Iran’s 12-day war with Israel, in Tehran, Iran, August 7, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
4. The Psychological Front
Efforts to incite unrest inside Iran: From Netanyahu’s direct message, “Rise up, children of Cyrus,” coupled with references to Iran’s water crisis, to Trump’s hopes for social dissatisfaction in Iran, psychological warfare runs parallel to the prospect of military confrontation.
Blending external pressure with internal turmoil: Israel’s unwritten strategy is built on the premise that only by linking military action with internal rifts can Iran’s system be truly weakened.
Why Did Netanyahu Address the Iranian People Again?
WANA (Aug 13) – Fifty days after the end of the twelve-day war, Benjamin Netanyahu once again turned to the Iranian people—this time not with missiles and airstrikes, but with a video message that smelled less like an “invitation” and more like a “pre-lost gamble.” In this address, the Israeli prime minister, with a tone […]
5. The Core Equation: Cohesion or Collapse
What will determine the outcome of a new confrontation is not simply military strength but the management of domestic society.
For Iran: Social cohesion served as the shield that prevented defeat in the 12-day war, and it could once again be decisive.
For Israel: Iran’s internal crises only become a strategic advantage for Tel Aviv if they can be combined with external pressure—a task far more complicated in practice than on paper.
People attend a gathering to support Iran’s Armed Forces following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, in Tehran, Iran, June 24, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Israel is fully aware of its own vulnerabilities, yet views Iran’s crises as an opportunity. Iran, for its part, has moved to establish the National Defense Council in preparation for a worst-case scenario.
In the end, both sides understand that the outcome of a future war will be determined less on the battlefield and more in the arenas of “social cohesion” and “psychological warfare.”
