WANA (Apr 09) – On the second day of a two-week temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States, global oil markets continue to show an upward trend, with prices posting a significant increase compared to the previous day.

 

According to trading data, Brent crude oil reached approximately $97.8 per barrel today. This comes after prices had dropped to around $91 per barrel on Tuesday following the announcement of the ceasefire. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has followed a similar path and is currently fluctuating between $97 and $98 per barrel. Overall, both benchmarks have risen by about $7 over the past 24 hours.

 

Analysts attribute the price increase primarily to ongoing disruptions in energy transit routes, particularly the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ceasefire announcement, there are still no clear signs of a full resumption of tanker traffic through this strategic waterway, fueling uncertainty in the market and preventing prices from declining.

 

Maritime tracking data also shows that in the first 24 hours after the ceasefire was announced, no oil or gas tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Only four bulk cargo vessels were reported to have transited the route, highlighting continued caution among shipping companies and concerns over regional security.

 

Meanwhile, energy market experts believe that recent developments have led to structural changes in the global oil market, making a return to pre-conflict price levels—around $70 per barrel—unlikely.

 

Jason Schenker, Chief Economist at Prestige Economics, stated that a “truly extraordinary event” would be required for oil prices to fall below $80. He warned that even minor disruptions in ceasefire negotiations or implementation could quickly push prices back above $100.

 

Overall, with geopolitical uncertainties persisting and key energy transit routes still disrupted, the oil market appears to remain fragile and highly vulnerable to volatility.