Plan B and the Eight Axes of Non-Military Pressure on Iran
WANA (Aug 26) – In his recent speech, Iran’s leader underlined a key point: over the past four decades, military tools have failed to weaken the Islamic Republic. According to him, the failure of this strategy has pushed adversaries toward a “Plan B”—setting aside tanks and missiles, and instead focusing on breaking internal unity.
Put simply, “hard power” against Iran has reached a dead end and has been replaced by softer methods. A review of the past year (August 2024 to August 2025) shows that these pressures can be summarized in eight main axes:
1) Manufacturing uncertainty about “the next war”
During the peak of direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Israeli officials repeatedly spoke of “what’s coming next.” This ambiguity kept markets and public opinion in a state of constant anticipation. In Washington, too, debates over whether to continue or halt operations kept alive the sense of an imminent “next strike.”
Why Did Netanyahu Address the Iranian People Again?
WANA (Aug 13) – Fifty days after the end of the twelve-day war, Benjamin Netanyahu once again turned to the Iranian people—this time not with missiles and airstrikes, but with a video message that smelled less like an “invitation” and more like a “pre-lost gamble.” In this address, the Israeli prime minister, with a tone […]
2) Polarizing domestic politics
After the June war, some exiled opposition groups called for widespread protests. But activists inside the country warned of the risks of instability. At the same time, Israel used media campaigns to deepen internal rifts—for example, Netanyahu’s video on Iran’s water crisis, coupled with a direct call for public protest.
3) Targeted economic pressure
Between June and August 2025, the U.S. imposed several new sanctions on oil sales networks, shipping, and affiliated companies in Asia and the Gulf. Europe also expanded its nuclear-, drone-, and human-rights-related sanctions. The threat of activating the “snapback mechanism” further intensified psychological pressure.
Diplomacy Against the Snapback Mechanism
4) Fueling social unrest
Truckers’ strikes, rising fuel prices, power outages, and water shortages in recent months were seen as potential triggers for unrest. Bloody attacks in border cities—including the assault on Zahedan’s courthouse on July 26—were designed to destabilize society and provoke reciprocal responses.
5) Strengthening centrifugal movements
Border attacks in Sistan and Baluchestan—from the August 22 ambush to the deadly July 26 assault—once again highlighted the role of groups like Jaish al-Adl, signaling the persistence of efforts to destabilize Iran’s periphery.
An Analysis of the Emerging Wave of Terrorist Attacks in Iran
WANA (Jul 26) – In recent days, signs of a renewed wave of organized terrorist attacks have emerged along Iran’s border regions. Given their timing and geographic distribution, these incidents appear to be more than isolated operations. Below is a summary of key points surrounding this new wave of violence: 1. The Role of […]
6) Sabotage and “deniable” attacks
The massive explosion in Bandar Abbas on April 27, 2025, was one example of such “signature-less attacks,” similar to several other recent explosions and fires where the line between accident and sabotage was deliberately blurred.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran followed the same pattern—Israel kept silent for months before claiming responsibility at a time of its choosing.
7) Regional pressure
In Lebanon, the proposal to disarm and push back Hezbollah was put on the table as part of a ceasefire package—a path that, if pursued, targets the deterrence balance of the resistance axis.
In the Caucasus, peace talks between Baku and Yerevan raised new transit routes that could impact Iran’s regional balance.
Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency
8) Undermining the social base
From narratives of economic losses in the June war to media portrayals of “the futility of resistance,” the focus has been on framing Iran’s chosen path as costly and pointless—with the underlying message: “continuing this path is no longer worth it.”
The Red Line: Internal Cohesion
Iran’s leader insists that all these axes only succeed if social unity is fractured. In his words, every word and every narrative can unintentionally fit into the adversary’s puzzle.
In practice, generating uncertainty and intensifying domestic rifts are cheaper tools than direct war. Economic and legal sanctions, combined with sabotage and regional pressures, work hand in hand.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Warns Against Divisions, Says U.S. Seeks a “Submissive” Tehran
WANA (Aug 24) – Iran’s Supreme Leader, speaking at a religious ceremony in Tehran today, stressed the necessity of maintaining internal cohesion among the people, officials, and the armed forces, warning that this unity “must not be undermined.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that past experience has shown Iran’s adversaries that the “steadfastness and strong […]
That is why “breaking national unity” is defined as the enabler of all these axes. If cohesion holds, the effectiveness of these pressures remains low; but any social fracture paves the way for “phased follow-up strikes.”
Forty-five years of military pressure failed to bring Iran to its knees. The question now is whether “engineering division from within” can succeed—or whether external pressure will once again, instead of collapse, generate renewed cohesion.
