WANA (Jun 14) – While some analytical circles have discussed the potential implications of any new agreement between Iran and the United States, a number of Iranian analysts have warned against relinquishing certain strategic levers at the outset of such arrangements.

 

From their perspective, any step that immediately reduces economic and geopolitical pressure on the United States could ultimately strengthen Washington’s and its allies’ ability to recover, reorganize, and rebuild their military and economic capabilities.

 

Within this context, one such Iranian analyst, Foad Izadi, a university professor and expert on international affairs, has examined a reported 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States and cautioned about its possible consequences. His full argument is presented below:

 

Opening the Strait of Hormuz Would Give the U.S. and Israel an Opportunity to Rebuild Their Capabilities and Launch Another Attack

The proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States would mean:

 

1. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz at the very first stage would effectively solve many of Trump’s economic and political challenges. Countries do not normally hand over their most important source of leverage to the other side at the beginning of negotiations.

 

2. Once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil prices decline:

 

  • U.S. strategic oil reserves would be replenished.
  • The resulting breathing space would allow American and Israeli military systems to be repaired and rebuilt.

 

3. This would amount to a repetition of the cycle of attack, ceasefire, negotiation, and attack again. The hostility of those who, in his view, martyred the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution has not diminished. Finding a pretext to withdraw from such an agreement would not be difficult for Trump.

 

Trump should not be allowed to claim that the cost of a second military strike against Iran would be manageable. The United States and Israel would use this period of respite to prepare for future attacks. Planning for a second coup attempt would also be on the agenda.

 

4. The principal sanctions against Iran are congressional sanctions, not executive sanctions. As a result, Trump could later claim that he lacks the authority to compel Congress to lift them and therefore fail to deliver on promised sanctions relief.

 

5. Since 2015, under the provisions of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), any agreement with Iran requires congressional approval. Given the influence of the Israel lobby, Congress is unlikely to vote in favor of lifting sanctions on Iran. Netanyahu’s influence among both Democratic and Republican lawmakers is greater than Trump’s.

People ride past an anti-U.S. billboard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, May 30, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

People walk past a billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building, amid a ceasefire between U.S. and Iran, in Tehran, Iran, April 27, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Proposed Solutions

1. Please do not sign this memorandum.

 

2. Please publish a list of desalination facilities and oil installations in the region that Iran considers potential targets. In the event of another attack on Iran, these facilities should be destroyed in such a way that rebuilding them would take at least two years.

 

Limited damage would not create sufficient deterrence. Trump would view limited strikes on such facilities merely as reconstruction projects for American companies. By contrast, extensive destruction would keep global oil and gas prices elevated for at least two years and provide the necessary deterrent effect.

 

Alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz should be prioritized among Iran’s potential targets.

 

3. Please do not reopen the Strait of Hormuz for at least another two months. Over the past three months, Iran has sold more than $30 billion worth of oil, which is sufficient to manage the country’s economy for the next two months.

 

4. Please do not forget the option of charging transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

According to international estimates, revenue from such fees could exceed twice the value of Iran’s oil sales. This, rather than remaining under the illusion that sanctions will be lifted, constitutes part of the solution to the country’s economic challenges.

 

Resistance or Negotiation?

WANA (Jun 13) – “What led to war was resistance, not negotiation.”   This sentence by Iran’s Foreign Minister might have been lost amidst the deluge of news and analysis in recent days. However, if one sentence had to be chosen to understand what is currently unfolding in Tehran, this would likely be it.   […]

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