WANA (Aug 29) – With Europe insisting on the snapback mechanism, Iran standing firm on its own rights, and the exclusion of the European troika from talks, Israel effectively loses an important diplomatic backer in its confrontational approach toward Iran. Without dialogue, the likelihood of war grows—and the memory of a recent 12-day conflict stands as a warning.

 

A war with Iran is not an easy option. The United States has shown no real willingness for an all-out war, while Israel on its own is incapable of taking effective action against the Islamic Republic—just as in the previous failed confrontation, where it relied heavily on America’s and Europe’s regional capacities.

A billboard with a picture of nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strikes and Iranian centrifuges is displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran August 29, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Still, it will not be easy for Europe and the U.S. to ignore an Iran that, after the implementation of the snapback, may leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and deny the IAEA—essentially the West’s eyes and ears in Iran—any oversight of its activities. Beyond that, Iran holds major strategic cards it has yet to fully play: the ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz, to destabilize the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and large parts of the Indian Ocean, along with long-range missiles capable of reaching Europe.

 

The pace of developments is as rapid as Israel’s cascading crises, and any new adventure could lead to outcomes that serve no one’s interest—not Iran, which would be forced into defense; not the U.S., whose bases and assets would come under attack; and not Israel, which has now realized that the missiles of the next war are not just ordinary weapons but true game changers.