WANA (Aug 24) – While U.S. Vice President JD Vance has said that between 7 million and 15 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, maritime tracking data shows a sharp decline in commercial shipping through the strategic waterway.

 

A review of data from Reuters, Al Jazeera and the UK’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicates that commercial vessel traffic in both directions of the Strait has fallen to its lowest level in recent days, with the number of vessels dropping to single digits.

 

Reuters reported on Monday, citing maritime tracking data, that fewer than 20 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the previous two days, with the figure falling to just four vessels on Sunday. Compared with an average of around 130 vessels per day before the war, the latest figure represents a decline of more than 90 percent in traffic through the waterway.

 

The sharp decline comes as Vance said on Sunday that between 7 million and 15 million barrels of oil were still passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Reports have also emerged about U.S. efforts to establish a maritime corridor backed by American military protection. However, maritime tracking data and independent reports paint a markedly different picture of the current situation in the Strait.

 

Al Jazeera also reported on Monday that maritime traffic patterns in the Strait of Hormuz have changed significantly over the past two days following official Iranian warnings that Tehran would prevent oil tankers from passing through if neighboring countries cooperated with U.S. sanctions.

 

According to data reviewed by Al Jazeera covering the period from Saturday through Sunday, August 23, only five oil tankers and three gas carriers were recorded among the vessels passing through the waterway during that period.

 

Al Jazeera also distinguished between the two routes used to transit the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, the same limited number of oil tankers used the main route running through Iranian and Omani waters. By contrast, no oil tanker was recorded using the so-called Omani corridor over the past two days, despite U.S. efforts to encourage tankers to use the route under the stated purpose of providing military protection.

 

Traffic through the corridor was limited to several cargo vessels, many of which had concealed information about their identities and destinations. The disparity between the two routes suggests that the U.S.-backed corridor has so far failed to attract oil tankers.

 

Meanwhile, the Kpler analytics firm has reported that no very large crude carrier carrying Iranian oil has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July. However, the practice of switching off tracking systems by a number of vessels has made it difficult to determine the actual volume of oil exports passing through the waterway.

 

At the same time, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has warned that if the U.S. economic war continues, Tehran will not allow even a single drop of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf. He also said that Iran had exported around 70 million barrels of oil over the previous two months.

 

Global oil markets have also reacted to the developments. Brent crude rose to nearly $94 a barrel in Monday trading, suggesting that market participants are taking the decline in shipping traffic through the Strait seriously and are factoring the possibility of continued disruptions into their assessments.