WANA (Feb 01) – In the new global ecosystem, the traditional boundaries between entertainment, economy, and espionage have become intertwined in an unprecedented way.

 

Online betting platforms, which were once known merely as a social or financial anomaly, have now turned into a new front for complex intelligence operations against societies, including the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 

Today, these websites go beyond simply emptying users’ pockets; they directly target the “national security” and the “psychological well-being” of societies and have become tools for engineering public opinion.

 

Betting; An Intelligent Net For Recruitment And Infiltration

According to analyses by experts in the field of security, foreign intelligence services — with Mossad at the forefront — view betting websites as a “golden database” for identifying suitable targets.

 

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Recruitment psychology in the world of espionage has proven that individuals who are professionally or addictively involved in gambling possess exactly the behavioral codes required for sabotage missions and infiltration:

 

Abnormal risk-taking and false boldness: An individual who has no hesitation in putting all of their assets at risk in a single moment is considered an ideal target for carrying out high-risk field operations that ordinary people are afraid to accept.

 

Breaking ethical barriers in exchange for fast profit: The desire to become rich overnight and addiction to the dopamine release resulting from sudden wins severely weakens a person’s resistance barriers and national loyalties when faced with large financial offers from intelligence services.

 

Desperation caused by losses and financial pressure: A gambler who has lost large sums and is under pressure from creditors or livelihood crises is easily caught in the trap of “job offers with astronomical income” that are presented under the guise of side advertisements on these websites. This stage marks the beginning of the process of turning a gambling loser into a security asset.

 

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The Polymarket Project; An Autopsy Of A Psychological Operation

In recent weeks, the website Polymarket, which is a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, has turned into the main showcase of a large-scale psychological operation against Iranian public opinion.

 

By defining a market titled “U.S. military attack on Iran by January 31,” this platform attempted to transform anxiety about the outbreak of war from an internal feeling into an apparently scientific and market-based “number and statistic.”

 

According to the latest published statistics, an amount exceeding 29 million dollars was wagered on the occurrence of this conflict; a figure which by itself was used as a media pressure tool to prove the “inevitability of war.”

 

In Iran’s virtual space, this issue quickly became a trend, and many users anxiously followed the fluctuations of this site’s charts as a signal of military realities. However, the key point was the undeniable trace of “information engineering” in this environment:

 

The role of “reference-making” accounts: According to precise technical reviews and monitoring of comments on the social network X, certain user accounts were present in this betting who had strange records in political predictions (including the Venezuela crisis and the fall of  governments).

 

For example, a user whom active users in this field consider to be a never-losing prophet confidently placed a bet on a U.S. attack on Iran by January 31 in order to lend credibility to this scenario.

 

Injection of financial resources: Analysts have pointed out that newly created accounts, which had clear links to Israeli media and security circles, attempted to artificially move the charts by injecting large sums (such as hundreds of thousands of dollars) at specific time intervals. The goal of this action was to create a “chart shock.”

 

Content-feeding for international media: One active user on X wrote with an analytical view of this issue: “These movements are more of a publicity show than rooted in military realities. These currents deliberately use the tactic of news-making during the Western weekend holidays in order to provide raw data and the necessary content for Sunday morning political analysis programs in international media.”

The Failure Of The January Scenario

With the calendar passing January 31 and no military confrontation occurring, it became clear that these markets were not reflecting field realities, but rather were complementing news media in order to “manage public perception.”

 

But this is not the end of the story; these platforms have now gone beyond military issues and have begun to target Iran’s governance and sovereign matters.

 

In a thought-provoking move, new betting markets have been created around the continuity of power of the senior pillars of the system and even predictions regarding the length of the Supreme Leader’s term of responsibility.

 

Recent developments show that a new front has been opened in cyberspace, in which betting platforms stand as a technological arm alongside traditional media wars. The objective of this new approach is to create continuous psychological pressure on society and to condition public opinion toward crisis scenarios.