The Four Bottlenecks: How Iran Could Paralyze Global Energy
WANA (Apr 25) – If the U.S. desires a renewed attack on Iran, an Iranian Attack on four Saudi oil targets will shut down Middle East oil production.
Many international experts believe that this is a new decision by the IRGC Aerospace Force to define a target bank from among oil facilities, and wherever the enemy strikes, Iran will strike the regional oil facilities: “Our southern neighbors should know that if their geography and facilities are used in the service of enemies to aggress against the Iranian nation, they must say goodbye to oil production in the Middle East.”
Accordingly, in the event of an escalation of new tensions in the Persian Gulf and the continuation of warmongering by the United States and the Israeli regime, it appears the most significant oil target is Saudi Arabia’s fourfold oil chain (Ghawar, Abqaiq, Petroline, and Yanbu), which, with an Iranian response, would transform from a purely economic system into the breaking point of the global energy order.
These four bottlenecks not only endanger the revenues of Riyadh and Washington, but any major disruption in them could turn the global oil market upside down and profoundly affect the global economy and the daily inflation of the people.
1. On the surface, this chain is one of the world’s most stable energy infrastructures; however, it is actually built upon four highly sensitive and concentrated points, each of which can independently create a major crisis. Iran, aware of this fragility, can position it as economic leverage against the warmongering of the United States, the Israeli regime, Saudi Arabia, and their allies.
A precision strike on “Abqaiq” could paralyze more than half of Saudi production and disrupt exports for weeks or months. The U.S. is not only a strategic ally of the Saudis but is also a direct technical and financial partner in these infrastructures through companies such as Baker Hughes, Halliburton, SLB, KBR, Fluor, and others.
In 2025 alone, more than $120 billion in memorandums and contracts related to Aramco were signed. Therefore, any further warmongering directly damages American interests and turns regional adventure into a global economic crisis.
If tensions rise and Iran attacks these four bottlenecks, particularly “Abqaiq,” the flames will not burn Saudi Arabia alone; they will also involve U.S. gas stations, the Wall Street stock exchange, and the global economy.
A sharp increase in oil and gasoline prices in the United States, new inflation, damage to the shares of American companies linked to Aramco, and the threat to energy security are only part of the consequences.
2. “Ghawar” remains the world’s largest conventional oil field, producing approximately 3.8 to 4 million barrels of oil per day. This figure is equivalent to nearly half of Saudi Arabia’s production (total Saudi production in early 2026 was about 10 million barrels per day) and nearly 4% of the global oil supply.
Although Ghawar is developed as a network, it depends on several key nodes. Even a 10% reduction in the performance of this field could reduce global supply by about 380,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in the short term.
3. “Abqaiq” is the most important link in the chain. This facility is the world’s largest crude oil processing center with a capacity of about 6 to 7 million barrels per day (some reports state over 7 million). Without “Abqaiq,” a large portion of Saudi Arabia’s oil does not enter the global market.
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In the September 14, 2019, attack using 18 drones and 3 cruise missiles, 5.7 million barrels per day (more than half of Saudi production and about 5% of global supply) were temporarily knocked out. Oil prices increased by about 15% to 20% within a few days, and Brent rose from around $60 to over $69.
Reports also mentioned damage to industrial control systems. Similar recent disruptions, including a 600,000-barrel reduction in Saudi production in April 2026, show that “Abqaiq” remains the beating heart of this system.
4. “Petroline” is a pipeline of approximately 1,200 kilometers with a nominal capacity of 7 million barrels per day, where the actual flow usually varies between 1 to 5 million barrels and has approached its maximum during recent tensions.
This line is designed as an alternative route to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but its performance is sensitive to several booster pump stations. A 20% to 30% reduction in performance could remove 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day from export capacity. A recent attack on one of the pumping stations in April 2026 caused a reduction of 700,000 barrels per day.
5. “Yanbu” is one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil export ports on the Red Sea, and its capacity in full connection to Petroline reaches about 4 to 5 million barrels per day (exceeding 4.5 million barrels at times in recent weeks). This port is an alternative route for exports to Europe and the Mediterranean, but has a direct dependence on the flow of Petroline.
These four links are systemically dependent: Ghawar provides the production, “Abqaiq” makes the oil tradable, Petroline moves it, and Yanbu brings it to the global market. The entire system functions only as well as its weakest link. Despite having reserves of over 267 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia has these same four concentrated bottlenecks, which have created a dangerous systemic risk.
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6. If Iran attacks these facilities directly or through allied forces, especially “Abqaiq,” the economic consequences will be catastrophic. The 2019 experience showed that even a multi-day disruption can cut 5.7 million barrels per day.
In a more severe scenario, Saudi Arabia might lose 50% or more of its production (5 to 6 million barrels or more), which, at current prices, would create a direct daily loss of $300 to $500 million or more, drive down Aramco’s stock value, and put the government budget (of which oil constitutes more than 50% of revenue) under severe pressure. Repairs under wartime conditions could take weeks or months and keep production below 8 million barrels per day for a long time.
The effect of this crisis will also spread to the global economy. A 3% to 6% or greater reduction in supply will result in a non-linear spike in oil prices. The oil market behaves wildly; a 1% decrease in supply usually creates a 5% to 15% increase in price. In a scenario of a successful attack on “Abqaiq” and the chain, oil prices could reach $130 to $200 or higher.
Gasoline prices in many countries would increase by 30% to 50% or even double. This inflationary shock would slow global economic growth, raise transportation and production costs, and bring major importing countries closer to recession.
The entire fourfold chain is within the direct range of Iran’s ballistic missiles. Ghawar is about 1,100 to 1,300 km from Bandar Abbas and less than 1,000 km from Bushehr. “Abqaiq” is about 1,100 to 1,400 km, Petroline with pumping stations along 1,200 km, and Yanbu is about 1,800 to 1,900 km from Bandar Abbas and 1,500 to 1,700 km from Bushehr.
Shahab-3, Qadr, and Sejjil missiles easily reach all of them. This analysis is a firm warning to all actors committing aggression against Iran that any additional adventure in the Persian Gulf may turn a regional war into a global crisis.
Iran Unveils Upgraded Qadr and Emad Ballistic Missiles. Social Media / WANA News Agency
