The Hormuz Crisis: A New Opportunity for Israel
WANA (Jul 13) – Against the backdrop of recent developments, Israel is likely the most satisfied actor on the scene. Following the clashes of recent days — and especially the failure of the latest mediation efforts over the Strait of Hormuz — the prospects for a final resolution of the disputes between Iran and the United States appear more distant than ever.
This situation could benefit Israel in several ways. In addition to Iran’s nuclear program, which remains Tel Aviv’s primary concern, the Strait of Hormuz has now emerged as another major point of contention between Tehran and Washington.
Unlike the United States, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Europe, and East Asian economies — all of which would suffer from any disruption to maritime traffic through Hormuz — Israel would not face significant direct economic losses from such a scenario, although it could benefit from its political and strategic consequences.
A billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
The proposal to divide the Strait into two corridors, a northern and a southern route, represented, from Washington’s perspective, the most generous concession that could have been offered within the framework of negotiations.
Based on this interpretation, the United States and the Omani mediator, through a narrow reading of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, limited Iran’s role in reopening the Strait to the northern corridor and Iran’s coastal waters, while considering the central part of the Strait and the southern corridor in Omani waters outside the scope of that framework.
Iran not only rejected this interpretation but, in response to Donald Trump’s deadline, chose military action instead of issuing a statement, while simultaneously announcing its decision to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman Continue Talks on Strait of Hormuz Shipping Framework
WANA (Jul 12) – Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Iran and Oman held talks in Muscat on Saturday to discuss future arrangements for managing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides agreeing to continue political, legal, and technical consultations to reach a shared framework. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the meeting […]
If this assessment is accurate, the strategic logic behind the decision is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is regarded as Iran’s most important deterrence tool and its strongest geopolitical pressure lever — a tool that, from Tehran’s perspective, can only retain its deterrent value through maintaining effective control over it.
The natural consequence of such a path is an increased risk of a return to military confrontation. From Washington’s perspective, accepting an interpretation that grants Iran broader control over the arrangements governing the Strait could be viewed as a strategic retreat — something that would not be easy to accept.
The clenched fist sculpture at Tehran’s Enqelab Square. Social media/ WANA News Agency
Under these circumstances, Israel can be considered one of the main beneficiaries of this deadlock, as continued tensions could increase the likelihood of greater U.S. alignment with policies aimed at containing and weakening Iran, as well as a possible resumption of military action against it.
However, at the current stage, a renewed conflict on the scale of the 40-day war does not appear to be the most likely option. A more probable scenario is that pressure would initially take the form of intensified maritime restrictions and a practical tightening of the blockade on Iranian ports.
If tensions continue to escalate, this process could eventually pave the way for a return to a broader confrontation.
