WANA (Feb 24) – Amid increasing military activity around Iran and intensifying deterrent signaling, signs indicate that tensions between the United States and Iran have entered a phase where the line between “controlled pressure” and “potential conflict” has become thinner than ever. In this phase, political calculations in Washington, military readiness in the region, and Israel’s role are simultaneously reshaping the deterrence equation.

 

While Donald Trump’s recent statements and actions point to growing domestic and external pressures, field data suggests that a confrontation scenario — even under the shadow of negotiations — is no longer merely theoretical, but has evolved into an operational option that could alter the trajectory of regional security developments in the short term.

 

Accordingly, a set of field indicators, political movements, and security assessments suggests that the current situation is not the result of a single factor, but rather the overlap of several simultaneous trends.

An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of an Iranian missile, in Tehran, Iran, February 19, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Taken together, these trends provide a clearer picture of the threat level, possible scenarios, and the calculations of key actors. The main components of this situation can be summarized as follows:

 

  1. The U.S. military posture against Iran is fully in place, and the transfer of military equipment to the region is ongoing.
  2. Israel has increased the readiness of its home front for potential military conflict.
  3. Trump is under intense pressure from pro-Israel lobbying groups to launch an attack on Iran within the coming week.
  4. At the same time, Trump’s doubts and uncertainties have increased.
  5. Even assuming an agreement is reached, the likelihood of an attack against Iran remains serious.
  6. An attack could be initiated by Israel and then continued with U.S. offensive and defensive support.
  7. U.S. behavior in the current negotiations bears notable similarities to the talks preceding the 12-day war.

Iran’s armed forces are on full alert, and any attack would be met immediately based on pre-planned scenarios.