WANA (Sep 28) – Activating the snapback mechanism is not just the reinstatement of UN resolutions; it feels more like a warning light being switched on, whose message is being sent into Iran: “pressure, isolation, and crisis.” But the question is whether this move is merely a dormant legal dispute or part of a more complex, premeditated scenario.

 

In the streets of Tehran, Mashhad and Isfahan, the initial reactions were mostly anxiety. The prices of the dollar and gold rose, some people hurried to line up and buy, and social media filled with alerts and worry. At the same time, others said calmly: “We’ve been under sanctions for 45 years — this is just another one.” Those two contrasting images reveal a reality analysts call “a psychological war by Europe and the United States”; a war aimed more at people’s minds and emotions than at the actual mechanics of Iran’s economy.

 

People, shaped by past experience, have learned that exaggerating the impact of sanctions can be more effective than the sanctions themselves. A market vendor says: “In  2020 they said everything would be paralyzed, but life went on. Our problem is more psychological than it is sanctions.” This viewpoint, though anxious, shows a kind of mental resilience — a resilience that, if not institutionalized, could collapse under media pressure.

Iranian people walk at the Tehran Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Westerners assume that by reimposing Security Council sanctions they can bring Iran to its knees. An analyst close to the revolutionary camp says: “Europe’s calculation is that activating the trigger mechanism will destabilize Iran internally and create conditions for negotiation and retreat. But they have miscalculated. Europe has been pushed out of Iran’s diplomacy, it has lost oversight at the IAEA, and the domestic opponents of the West have been strengthened.”

 

In his most recent speech the Leader of Iran explicitly emphasized that the enemy, having failed on the battlefield, is now investing in internal division:

 

“You cannot bring Iran to its knees through war and military attack… They have realized the way is to create division inside, to sow discord. Today the people are united, and that unity harms them; they want to destroy it.”

 

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WANA (Sep 23) – In a televised address to the Iranian nation, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution stated: Under current circumstances, negotiations with the U.S. government bring no benefit to us, nor will they avert any harm from us.   Ayatollah Khamenei, in his televised address to the people, spoke about the unity […]

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From this perspective, many political activists inside the country do not see the trigger mechanism as merely a legal tool; they read it as a code name for intelligence operations and combined-pressure campaigns against Iran. Warnings about a “return to embassy wars” and targeting of clandestine sanction-evasion routes are evaluated in this context.

 

But the key question is: how will Iran respond? Various options have been put on the table — from reciprocating pressure on Europe by selling arms to Russia, to issuing explicit warnings in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The seizure of the British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz is still remembered. An international affairs expert recalls: “In Resolution 1929 there was talk of inspecting Iranian ships, but the deterrence of the navy and the presence of Ansarallah in Bab al-Mandeb have made that scenario practically impossible.”

Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaks during a parliament meeting in Tehran, Iran, September 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Economic analysts highlight another aspect they call “economic conditioning.” In other words, every time a hand goes up in the Security Council or news of a new sanction breaks, the currency and gold markets suffer a psychological shock — even if, in practice, no new sanctions beyond the existing ones are actually imposed. As a French magazine wrote: “New sanctions against Iran are largely symbolic; the primary sanctions have long been implemented by the United States.”

 

Meanwhile, Iran insists on two parallel tracks: on the one hand strengthening deterrence and reciprocal pressure on Europe, and on the other deepening cooperation with China, Russia and non-Western countries. Moscow and Beijing’s siding with Tehran in the Security Council is a sign of this emerging realignment.

The American flag is seen on a sign at a currency exchange in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

But perhaps most important of all is the psychological impact of this affair on Iranian society. As was repeatedly said during the COVID era, fear of a disease can sometimes be more dangerous than the disease itself. In the case of sanctions, many believe that “fear of the trigger mechanism” can cause more harm than the mechanism itself. A man in Tehran’s bazaar put it plainly: “Sanctions aren’t death. We were under sanctions during wartime, during the pandemic they wouldn’t give us vaccines, so we made them ourselves and survived.”

 

Europe and the United States are using loudspeakers to paint a frightening picture of Iran’s future, but the memory of 45 years of resistance has vaccinated part of society against that image. Now the main question is whether authorities can neutralize this psychological war through sound economic management and transparent communication. Because “Europe has pinned its hopes on the streets of Iran. If the streets stay calm, the trigger mechanism will be just a piece of paper.”