U.S.–China Trade War: How Iran’s Oil and Exports Could Be Impacted
WANA (Oct 13) – The escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington has not only disrupted global supply chains but also cast its shadow over the trade trajectory of countries like Iran, whose exports—especially to China—remain vulnerable to shifts in global demand.
Trump’s Tariff Hike Escalates Economic Tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced plans to raise import tariffs on Chinese goods by up to 100 percent, marking a sharp escalation in the long-standing economic standoff between the world’s two largest economies.
Experts warn that the move could have ripple effects across global trade, potentially influencing Iran’s oil exports and broader trade dynamics, given the interdependence of major economies.
Iran–China Ties Under Indirect Pressure
Majid-Reza Hariri, President of the Iran–China Chamber of Commerce, noted that an economic confrontation between the two powers had been anticipated for years, but Trump’s policies have brought the dispute into the realm of tariffs and trade restrictions.
Afghanistan’s Bagram: The U.S. New Front Against Iran and China
WANA (Oct 12) – Analysts say Washington’s stated focus on China’s nuclear program masks deeper geopolitical intentions. While Washington has framed its intention to reestablish control over Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base as part of efforts to monitor China’s nuclear activities, regional observers suggest the move primarily targets the growing China–Iran economic and transit cooperation. […]
“Trump wants to treat China the same way he has treated other countries—using tariffs as leverage to compel compliance,” Hariri said. “However, China is a global powerhouse and has stood firm against such pressure. Both economies depend on each other: the U.S. relies on Chinese goods and raw materials, while China values access to the American market. In the end, a win–win agreement seems likely, because prolonged tensions would only drive inflation higher in the United States.”
Implications for Iran’s Export Economy
China is Iran’s largest trading partner, accounting for over 70 percent of Iran’s total trade, including both oil and non-oil exports. Economists warn that U.S. tariffs on Chinese products could have secondary effects on Iran.
“In simple terms, if China’s exports to a major market like the U.S. decline, its imports—including crude oil from Iran—will also decrease,” Hariri explained. “Such a scenario would further strain Iran’s economy, especially under current sanctions and snapback conditions.”
Before the new tariffs were imposed, the U.S. had already sanctioned several Chinese companies and ports for maintaining trade relations with Iran—an indication that Tehran remains indirectly entangled in the broader U.S.–China economic confrontation.
China’s Customs Reports Over 3 Tons of Gold Exported to Iran in Early 2025
WANA (Oct 05) – According to official data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Iran imported more than 3 tons of gold from China during the first five months of 2025. Detailed trade figures show that in just the first two months of the year (January and February 2025), Iran purchased around 2.25 tons […]
Oil Market Risks and Possible Scenarios
Hariri acknowledged that short-term frictions might increase China’s crude purchases from Iran as Beijing seeks alternatives to U.S.-linked suppliers. However, he warned that a prolonged trade war could depress global demand and drive oil prices down, harming Iran and other major energy exporters in the long run.
An Uncertain Endgame
As the U.S.–China trade conflict continues to evolve, its ripple effects across global markets grow increasingly evident. For Iran—already navigating severe sanctions and limited financial channels—the ongoing tariff war complicates trade prospects further, deepening the challenges faced by Iranian exporters.
For now, it remains unclear when or how this economic battle will end, or what kind of agreement, if any, will restore stability to global trade.
