WANA (Aug 10) – Yadollah Javani, the IRGC’s Deputy for Political Affairs and a political analyst on regional, security, and political issues, in an analysis of recent developments in the Caucasus, compared the actions of Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, in granting strategic concessions to the United States and NATO, to the decisions made by Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine. According to Javani, had the two leaders considered the consequences of bringing the U.S., the U.K., and NATO into the region, they would never have been swayed by the promises of Washington, Israel, and certain European countries.

 

The analysis emphasized that the decision of Baku and Yerevan was made without regard for the geopolitical realities of the Caucasus or the interests of other regional countries, repeating the same mistake Zelensky made — a mistake which, in Javani’s view, led Ukraine into crisis and exposed it to Russian military action. From his perspective, the Ukrainian president, thinking that joining NATO would secure a bright future for his country, ignored Russia’s security red lines and placed Ukraine in the path of the Russian army. This, Javani argued, has already inflicted irreparable costs on Ukraine and has left the country’s future — including its territorial integrity and national sovereignty — in uncertainty.

 

In Javani’s assessment, the actions of Aliyev and Pashinyan carry consequences even greater than those of Zelensky’s miscalculation. He pointed out that their agreement, signed in the White House, to lease the Zangezur Corridor exclusively to the United States for 99 years has placed them not only against Russia but also against other major regional powers, including Iran, China, and India. According to him, these countries view the move as a direct threat to their national interests and security, and are unlikely to remain passive.

Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency

Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency

The commentary also referred to the statements of Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader on international affairs, and to the initial position of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, both indicating firm opposition to U.S. presence near Iran’s northern borders and within Russia’s security sphere. In an exclusive interview, Velayati stated: “With or without Russia, Iran will prevent the construction of the American corridor in the Caucasus, because this corridor threatens the region’s security and alters its geopolitical map.”

 

He also added: “Is the Caucasus an ownerless land for Trump to rent? The Caucasus is one of the most sensitive geographical points in the world, and this passage will not become a corridor under Trump’s ownership, but rather a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.”

 

These remarks were interpreted as a clear message to the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as to the United States, and align with Iran’s officially declared policy of firm opposition to any geopolitical changes along its northern borders, a stance it has pledged to confront with full force.