WANA (Nov 13) – “If the water situation continues like this, we may have to evacuate Tehran.” This blunt remark by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in early November 2025 went far beyond routine warnings—it echoed like an alarm bell across the public sphere. A city once sustained by ambitious water transfer projects and promises of “smart” resource management may now, according to its president, become “uninhabitable.”

 

This autumn, Iran has remained strikingly rainless. Cloudless skies, shrinking reservoirs, and warnings of an impending “Day Zero” have painted a grim picture repeated from south to north.

 

But unlike previous years, this crisis isn’t confined to meteorological reports. On social media and in informal discussions, a theory more popular than any weather chart is spreading: someone has tampered with the sky.

A general view of the Kon River, which used to be Tehran’s main source of water supply, following a drought crisis in Tehran, Iran, November 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

What Do the Data Say?

According to Iran’s Meteorological Organization, as of November 3, the national average rainfall stood at just 2.3 millimeters—81% below the long-term mean. In Tehran, precipitation measured only 1.1 millimeters, compared to a historical average of 20.3 millimeters—a drop of nearly 95%. In simple terms, Iran’s autumn has passed almost entirely without rain.

 

But does this imply hidden interference? Long-term data say otherwise.

 

A fifty-year analysis of Iran’s synoptic weather stations shows that two-thirds of them have recorded declining rainfall trends. The country’s annual average precipitation has fallen from around 320 millimeters in the 1970s to less than 250 millimeters in the 2010s.

 

This gradual reduction reveals a structural drought—a long-term shift, not a one-year anomaly.

A small amount of water pours out of the faucet following a drought crisis in Tehran, Iran, November 9, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

The Thin Line Between Data and Delusion

In times of crisis, societies often look for a tangible enemy. When drought can’t be felt or fully understood, the mind turns to more imaginable causes: “They’ve stolen our clouds,” “Cloud seeding has been reversed,” or “Foreign powers are altering wind paths with radio waves.”

 

These stories are simple, decisive, and oddly comforting—everything that science is not.

 

Scientifically speaking, cloud seeding can only slightly increase rainfall in clouds already close to precipitation. It cannot create clouds or block weather systems. No known technology can “prevent” clouds from entering a region.

 

In other words, if a weather system doesn’t form, no chemical or radio wave can conjure rain from an empty sky.

People shop water storage tanks following a drought crisis in Tehran, Iran, November 10, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

“Anti-Hail” Devices and a Major Misunderstanding

In recent years, Iranian farmers have increasingly used devices called anti-hail generators. These machines produce sound waves to prevent hail formation over small agricultural areas.

 

Yet in some rumors, they’ve been recast as climate weapons—allegedly capable of erasing entire rain systems.

 

Experts emphasize that their impact is limited to a few kilometers and that they have no power to alter climate patterns. Still, a lack of transparency and growing public distrust have allowed such misconceptions to spread rapidly.

A general view of the Amirkabir dam following a drought crisis in Tehran, Iran, November 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Why Are Conspiracy Narratives So Convincing?

Social psychologists describe a phenomenon called uncontrollable-anxiety response: When faced with complex, unpredictable forces like the climate, people seek human agents behind them to regain a sense of control.

 

From this perspective, “natural drought” feels scarier than “human manipulation,” because the former offers no one to blame—and no path to fix it.

 

Yet this psychological defense is also the most dangerous part. It diverts public attention from real solutions—sound water management policies—and channels social energy toward fighting an imaginary enemy.

A general view of the Amirkabir dam following a drought crisis in Tehran, Iran, November 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

The Climatic Reality of Iran

Meteorological trends indicate that Iran is undergoing a structural climate transformation: Fewer Mediterranean weather systems, higher surface temperatures, and seasonal shifts have moved Iran’s rainfall pattern from “autumn–winter” toward “winter–spring.”

 

At the same time, decades of groundwater overuse and the absence of a comprehensive water policy have weakened the land’s ability to retain moisture. Under these conditions, even normal rainfall is no longer enough. Put differently: today’s crisis began not in the sky, but on the ground.

 

No satellite or meteorological evidence supports claims of “weather manipulation.” What is evident, however, is the erosion of water policy.

 

The way out lies not in the clouds but in the soil—in reforming crop patterns, managing consumption, recycling water, and restoring aquifers.