Will the War Resume After Trump Returns from China?
WANA (May 16) – The U.S.-Israeli war imposed on Iran did not resume before Trump’s trip to China, but it may return to the American agenda after his visit. Of course, another war may still be avoided, but given the current deadlock, the likelihood of renewed conflict remains high.
The United States appears to have set both a minimum and maximum timeframe for maintaining the current situation. The minimum period — during which Washington believed pressure and containment could force Iran into submission — has already expired. The maximum timeframe is also nearing its end, without Iran showing any willingness to yield to American demands.
Trump reportedly hoped that by traveling to Beijing and reaching an understanding with Xi Jinping, he could use Chinese influence to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the war resumes or not may therefore depend partly on the outcome of these meetings and the messages exchanged behind closed doors.
This connection is not because China is believed capable of changing Iran’s position. In fact, it appears unlikely that anything could alter the Islamic Republic’s stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of a caricature depicting U.S. President Donald Trump, in Tehran, Iran, May 5, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)
Rather, the relevance lies in the possibility that Chinese officials may have issued warnings influencing Trump and his team’s calculations — or conversely, that failure to achieve results could push Washington toward either renewed military action or efforts to reopen the strait after the American delegation returns home.
The scenario described above reflects America’s position in a moment of strategic deadlock — a situation that increases the chances of war while also leaving room for restraint. Why? Because the United States has already confronted the Islamic Republic militarily and has experienced Iran’s capabilities firsthand. American officials now understand more clearly than before how high the risk of failure could be.
They are aware of their own vulnerabilities and Iran’s strengths, while still lacking an effective way to neutralize the key capabilities of Iran’s armed forces. They also know that if another war begins, the damage they sustain could be far heavier and the consequences far broader than in the past.
Time, according to this view, is working in Iran’s favor. The Islamic Republic appears focused on forcing Trump to ultimately accept its terms. Launching a new war would impose enormous costs on the United States, while avoiding war would allow Washington’s broader strategic problems to continue piling up. Many analysts therefore believe that Trump’s best path out of this self-created quagmire may simply be to accept defeat.
China, Trump and the Hormuz Challenge
WANA (May 13) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing comes at a time when the recent war against Iran and its impact on global energy security have added a new dimension to the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Analysts believe the crisis could overshadow the main objectives of the trip and turn […]
