Zangezur and the Tightening of Tehran’s Geopolitical Ring
WANA (Aug 10) – On Saturday morning at the White House, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, alongside Donald Trump, signed an agreement that, on the surface, may seem to be about just 32 kilometers of roadway—but in reality, it has the potential to reshape Iran’s geopolitical landscape.
The so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” or the TRIPP project, would not only connect mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan but also remove Iran from its long-standing role as the key land bridge linking Central Asia with the Caucasus and Turkey.
The scenario is simple: until now, every truck traveling from Baku to Nakhchivan had no choice but to pass through Iranian territory. Tomorrow, with the corridor operational, that need disappears. Iran’s route would be replaced by a passage managed by an American-led consortium, leased for 99 years—effectively establishing a permanent U.S. economic, security, and intelligence foothold just a few kilometers from Iran’s northwestern borders.
Ilham Aliyev, Nikol Pashinyan and Donald Trump . Social Media / WANA News Agency
The consequences go far beyond losing a single transit route. The corridor completes the Turkey–Azerbaijan–NATO axis, creating a Turkic-centered land line stretching from Istanbul to Central Asia—bypassing Iran entirely.
This route could enable the transfer of Caspian energy to Europe without crossing either Iranian or Russian territory, eroding Iran’s energy export competitiveness and potentially severing Tehran’s overland connection to Europe via Armenia.
At the same time, the growing geopolitical alignment between Baku and Ankara could foster conditions for promoting Pan-Turkist discourse in Iran’s northwest—a phenomenon repeatedly flagged in the country’s security circles as a soft threat.
A Shift in Iran’s Official Tone
Iran’s position on Zangezur has, until recently, been clear and unwavering. In October 2023, the late President Ebrahim Raisi, in separate meetings with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials, warned: “The Zangezur Corridor paves the way for NATO’s presence in the region and poses a threat to national security; we firmly oppose it.” This blunt statement was consistent with Tehran’s long-standing policy of preventing any geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus.
Yet, two years later, the official tone appears to have changed. Current President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a meeting with senior Foreign Ministry officials, referred to the northwestern border crossings as “minor issues” and stated: “There’s no need to be concerned about certain smaller matters, including northwestern border crossings… we must reduce sensitivities and focus on expanding constructive engagement.” This approach drew criticism from media outlets that saw it as downplaying a strategic threat.
More recently, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior foreign policy adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, took an entirely different stance in an interview: “Is the South Caucasus some ownerless land for Trump to lease?… This corridor will not become a passage owned by Trump, but a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.” This rhetoric marked a return to a warning-heavy, security-oriented tone, underscoring the gap between two approaches—minimizing the issue or amplifying the threat.
Velayati: Iran Blocks US Zangezur Corridor With or Without Russia
WANA (Aug 09) – Ali Akbar Velayati, Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader on International Affairs, has stressed that Iran will prevent the establishment of the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” in the South Caucasus, whether Russia cooperates or not. He emphasized that the corridor threatens regional security and aims to alter the geopolitical map of the area. […]
The Geopolitical Knot Ahead
Regardless of these tonal differences, on-the-ground realities point to one conclusion: if Zangezur is activated under foreign management and beyond the direct control of regional states, it could shift the balance of power in the South Caucasus.
Excluding Iran from vital transit routes, boosting Turkish and NATO influence, and embedding a permanent U.S. presence near Iran’s northwestern borders would create a blend of geopolitical, economic, and cultural pressure—tightening Iran’s connection to West Asia and Europe over the long term.
The key question is which path Iran will choose in response: maintaining a firm deterrence posture and explicit warnings, or gradually accepting these changes in hopes of broader engagement? The answer will shape not only Tehran’s role in the South Caucasus but also its regional identity for decades to come.
Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency
