WANA (Aug 10) – On Friday, August 8, 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement at the White House under the direct mediation of the United States. Many observers believe this accord is less about achieving lasting peace and more about strengthening NATO’s military and geopolitical foothold in the South Caucasus.

 

Reviving an Old Project with New Labels

At the heart of the agreement lies the “Zangezur Corridor” project, whose origins date back 34 years to the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to Dr. Dariush Safarnejad, an expert on Eurasian affairs, the plan was initially conceived by NATO and Israel, and over the past three decades has been pursued under various names, including the “Paul Goble Plan.”

 

Originally aimed at creating a land link between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave to address the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the project went through seven different versions but was never implemented due to strong resistance from Iran and Russia.

 

The latest version, rebranded with names such as “Peace Crossroads,” “Trump Corridor,” and “Syunik Corridor,” envisions a 42-kilometer stretch of land, 5 to 15 kilometers wide, encompassing land, airspace, and even orbital control. It is to be placed under the management of a U.S.- and NATO-led consortium for 100 years.

Dr. Dariush Safarnejad, an expert on Eurasian affairs

Dr. Dariush Safarnejad, an expert on Eurasian affairs. Social media/ WANA News Agency

Implications for Iran and Its Neighbors

According to Safarnejad, this effectively means ceding part of Armenian territory to the West. The ultimate goal, he warns, is to sever Iran’s direct connections to Armenia, Georgia, and the Black Sea, dismantling the Armenian segment of the International North–South Transport Corridor. The corridor, he adds, would also become a conduit for Israeli, pan-Turkic, extremist, and NATO-linked forces into Iran’s northwestern borders.

 

Russia’s Reaction and Prospects for Tension

Referring to recent rounds of talks in Turkey, the UAE, and finally, at the White House, Safarnejad says Moscow was “caught off guard” and is currently acting like “a bear in winter hibernation.” He believes Russia’s silence will be temporary, predicting a firm reaction in the near future.

 

Under the new agreement, NATO will control and protect the corridor, while Washington has pledged to bring both Azerbaijan and Armenia into NATO simultaneously in the coming months—a move that removes the long-standing obstacle of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and sets the stage for direct confrontation between Russia and the West in the South Caucasus.

 

A Parallel with Ukraine: The “Ukrainization” of the Caucasus

Safarnejad foresees that part of the current U.S.–Russia confrontation in Ukraine will spill over into the Caucasus. He notes that attempts to bring Ukraine into NATO 13 years ago triggered a crisis and the country’s eventual fragmentation—a scenario he believes could repeat itself in the South Caucasus.

 

Iran’s Strategic Response

In Safarnejad’s view, Iran must adopt a “multi-polar diplomacy” approach, working closely with Russia, China, India, and the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to formally oppose the transfer of Armenia’s border areas to NATO and block implementation of the plan.

 

He stresses that Tehran should warn regional states of the dangers of the project and take steps to prevent the “Ukrainization” of the Caucasus. Failure to act, he warns, would not only undermine Iran’s geopolitical position but also pose long-term security threats to major powers such as Russia, China, and India.

Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency

Armenia, Azerbaijan sign peace deal. Social media/ WANA News Agency