WANA (Nov 06) – In 2016, the morning after the U.S. election, Iran’s reformist media were elated over what they believed was a guaranteed victory for Hillary Clinton. They even displayed her photo beside Iran’s then-president, the reformist Hassan Rouhani. But the election ended with Donald Trump’s unexpected win.

 

Today, with Trump’s re-election, history repeats itself. Reformists in Iran, who eagerly awaited Kamala Harris’s presence in the White House, are likely to feel more disappointment than the American Democrats.

 

The primary reason for Iranian reformists’ frustration with Trump is his withdrawal from the nuclear deal (JCPOA). This decision effectively dashed their hopes of delivering on promises, leading to significant setbacks for the reformist faction in subsequent Iranian elections.

Iran’s reformist bloc, often seen as supporters of the West—especially the U.S.—still believes that America holds the reins of global power, and Tehran has no choice but to engage with it to navigate sanctions and address various issues.

 

However, for at least four decades, the West and the U.S. have provided minimal support to their advocates within Iran. The U.S. did not bolster Rafsanjani’s technocratic government to make him more popular in Iran. It didn’t ease the economic strains during the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, prompting frustrated voters to elect a radical like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Nor did it offer significant assistance to Hassan Rouhani’s moderate government, which openly sought direct ties with the U.S.

 

 

In fact, contrary to popular belief, Iran’s conservative governments have historically gained more concessions from the U.S. due to their resistance than the reformists, who tend to lean toward the West.

 

With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, what stance will the reformist-led Iranian government adopt? When Trump took office in 2016 and subsequently withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran’s then-president Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called Trump a “madman” and a “mentally ill,” blaming him as the main reason for their governance failures. In the coming months, will reformists like Masoud Pezeshkian once again hold Trump responsible for their challenges to deflect accountability for their inefficiencies?

An anti-U.S. billboard is displayed on a building in Tehran, Iran, November 6, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

Like many around the world, Iranians have followed the U.S. elections, albeit seemingly with less enthusiasm than before, possibly due to a growing indifference. In interviews with WANA News Agency, many Tehran residents expressed the belief that the candidates’ policies on Iran were similar, with neither intending to normalize relations.

 

Most Iranians saw a higher likelihood of increased sanctions and a potential risk of war if Trump won. Meanwhile, Iranian political analysts argue that Trump’s presence in the White House benefits Iran since he lacks the ability to build a global consensus against it.

 

With Trump’s re-election, the coming days and months are bound to bring surprises for West Asia and Iran. Israel’s conflicts with Muslims, its struggle for survival, the Ukraine war, Iran’s nuclear issue, and sanctions are among the challenges that seem unlikely to be resolved easily during Trump’s new term.

 

Evidently, Iran isn’t overly concerned about a direct war with the U.S., as Tehran believes that America has no real agenda for such a conflict. Trump’s rhetoric, in Iran’s view, resembles more of a loud bark without the intention to bite.