WANA (Apr 08) – One of New Delhi’s major concerns regarding Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran is the growing alignment between Tehran and Beijing, which could sideline India’s investments and operations in Iran.

 

Trump has warned that if Tehran does not sign a new nuclear deal with Washington, “it will face bombings unlike anything it has ever witnessed before”,” with the possibility of additional tariffs on Iran looming.

 

Iran Stands Firm

However, India’s India Times newspaper reported that Iran has strongly reacted to these threats. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that if the U.S. carries out Trump’s threat, Iran will respond with a “hard blow.”

 

Iran has also prepared its missile arsenal, with many of the missiles stationed in underground facilities designed to withstand airstrikes, ready to target U.S. interests globally.

 

Trump’s threats followed Iran’s rejection of direct negotiations with the U.S., although Tehran expressed willingness to engage in indirect talks through intermediaries like Oman.

 

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have soared since Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first term.

 

Impact on India

The Indian newspaper highlighted that if Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran continues, India’s trade, relations, and strategic interests with Tehran could be adversely affected.

 

1. India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC): The IMEC project, designed to strengthen economic integration between India, the Middle East, and Europe, is facing serious challenges due to Trump’s threats. U.S.-Iran tensions could disrupt this initiative, divert investments, and impact India’s strategic influence.

 

2. Oil Imports: Once the largest buyer of Iranian oil, India has been forced to seek alternatives following U.S. sanctions. Continued pressure would keep New Delhi dependent on more costly sources from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S.

 

3. Trade Challenges: A proposed Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) between India and Iran is under threat due to sanctions that limit financial transactions and investment. Bilateral trade has dropped from $17 billion in 2018-2019 to just $2.3 billion in 2022-2023.

 

4. Chabahar Port Development: Though technically exempt from sanctions, U.S. sanctions have impacted the financing of the Chabahar port project, slowing its progress. This port is crucial for India’s access to Central Asia and Afghanistan without crossing Pakistan.

 

5. Competition with China: China’s growing ties with Iran, including a 25-year strategic pact, could push India out of key projects and access to critical resources in the region.