Iran-U.S. Negotiations: A Risky Deal or a Path to Change?
WANA (Jan 31) – Imagine waking up tomorrow to the news that Tehran and Washington have agreed, after years of tension, to engage in comprehensive strategic talks. What would this mean for Iran? Would it mark the beginning of a fundamental transformation, or would it be just another diplomatic maneuver with the same fate as the JCPOA? If negotiations are limited to easing sanctions in exchange for curbing Iran’s nuclear program, do they hold any real value? Or should there be a broader agreement—one that elevates Iran-U.S. relations to a level comparable to those of Saudi Arabia, Israel, or even France, the Czech Republic, and Poland?
The Problem with Superficial Negotiations: A Repeated Experience
If negotiations between Tehran and Washington once again focus solely on reducing sanctions in exchange for nuclear restrictions, their future appears bleak. The JCPOA experience demonstrated that limited, tactical agreements can easily collapse with shifts in U.S. domestic policy. Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal, Biden failed to revive it, and the next Republican administration is likely to abandon it again. Should Iran risk engaging in yet another fragile agreement?
Trump: I Hope Iran Reaches an Agreement
WANA (Jan 24) – U.S. President Donald Trump, while discussing Iran, claimed it would be better to resolve the issues without an Israeli attack, stating, “I hope Iran will agree.” Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump expressed optimism that the matter could be resolved without any unnecessary steps. “It would be great […]
Some analysts argue that tactical negotiations are not only futile but even dangerous. Richard Nephew, the architect of U.S. sanctions on Iran under the Obama administration, writes in The Art of Sanctions: “Sanctions are effective when they force the target into negotiations, but if negotiations only lead to temporary relief, they eventually lose their impact.”
Strategic Negotiations: A New Relationship or a Transformation of the System?
But what would it mean if Iran-U.S. negotiations moved to a strategic level? Would it resemble the U.S.-Saudi relationship? Or perhaps security cooperation akin to NATO’s ties with Eastern European nations? If so, what changes would Iran need to accept?
Pezeshkian: Iran Has “Never” Planned the Assassination of Donald Trump
WANA (Jan 15) – In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Iran’s President, Massoud Pezeshkian, stated that Iran is fundamentally ready for dialogue with a potential second term of Donald Trump’s administration. He emphasized, however, the importance of honoring commitments made during such negotiations, adding that Iran has “never” planned the assassination of Donald Trump […]
In such a scenario, certain conditions are clear:
1. Full Alignment with the West – A fundamental shift in Iran’s foreign policy, reducing the influence of Russia and China.
2. Reopening of U.S. Diplomatic Missions in Iran – An unprecedented step since 1979.
3. Large-Scale Western Investment in Iran – Which would require major internal economic policy reforms.
4. Official or at Least Reduced Hostility with Israel – A major red line for the Iranian leadership.
5. Security and Military Coordination with the U.S. and NATO – Necessitating a structural overhaul of Iran’s armed forces.
What is Trump’s 2025 Strategy Towards Iran?
WANA (Dec 23) – Following the helicopter incident involving Ebrahim Raisi, the late Iranian president, American analysts predicted his replacement by a more radical figure, potentially leading to internal fractures and diminished stability within the Islamic Republic. However, these forecasts quickly proved incorrect. The Islamic Republic demonstrated its resilience by restructuring its systems and achieving […]
But Is Such an Agreement Possible?
Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly emphasized that Iran’s issue with the U.S. goes beyond diplomacy. In 2019, he stated: “Our problem with the U.S. is not about a specific issue. They do not accept the Islamic Republic in its essence, and they see every agreement as a stepping stone for further demands.”
Given his long-standing anti-imperialist stance, particularly against the U.S., he is unlikely to approve such negotiations. Even if he did, Iran’s military establishment and influential pro-Russian and pro-Chinese factions would serve as formidable obstacles.
Did Iran’s Leader Approve Negotiations?
WANA (Jan 29) – “Behind (America’s) diplomatic smiles, hostility and resentment are hidden.” This is a statement made by Iran’s Supreme Leader in his latest speech—a direct warning about Western policies that once again highlights Tehran’s distrust of vague promises and non-binding commitments. In recent days, Iran’s foreign policy has witnessed significant developments that […]
What Stands in the Way of a Grand Bargain?
Even if Iran and the U.S. theoretically reach a strategic agreement, major hurdles remain:
Domestic Opposition – The IRGC and other security institutions strongly resist rapprochement with the U.S.
Russian and Chinese Influence – These powers view Iran as part of their anti-American bloc and will not easily allow Tehran to shift westward.
Unpredictable U.S. Policy Shifts – Even if a Democratic president signs such an agreement, there is no guarantee a future Republican administration won’t scrap it.
Does Zarif Have a Secret Negotiation Mission at the “Davos Summit”?
WANA (Jan 20) – Mohammad Javad Zarif has traveled to Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum (Davos 2025), raising suspicions about the goals of this trip. This morning, Mohammad Javad Zarif left Iran for Switzerland to participate in the 55th World Economic Forum (Davos 2025). According to announcements from the government, in addition […]
Ultimately, the key question is this: Should Iran pursue a strategic deal with the U.S., even if it requires significant changes in its domestic and foreign policies? Or should it maintain its independent stance, despite the continued burden of sanctions and international isolation?
For now, this remains a hypothetical scenario. But as global dynamics evolve, sooner or later, Iran will have to confront this question head-on. In terms of foreign policy, it may be the most comprehensive, immediate, and effective remedy for Iran’s challenges—yet also the most ambitious one. And whether by choice or necessity, it is an outcome that may prove inevitable.T
