WANA (June 24) – There is growing uncertainty regarding the winner of the Iran 2024 presidential election. The latest polls suggest different winners, and there is no consensus among them.

 

Polls published online by reputable polling centers in Iran have complicated the situation for conservative candidates. Now, all conservatives have started asking themselves whether they should rely on these polls.

 

They ask themselves, “Should we make a consensus on a single candidate before June 28?” It seems that the “revolution camp” is facing a big test, and their opponents are attempting to keep all conservatives in the race. Reformists believe that the presence of all conservative candidates in the race is their defeat.

 

Several important facts should be considered. Regardless of varying polls, a runoff election has been very probable until now. But of course, essential incidents, like previous elections, may happen in this final week, which might completely change the situation.

WANA-candidates

WANA-candidates

So many conservatives in candidate campaign teams think Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili will be the candidates in a probable runoff. ¬†They don’t think about the presence of Masoud Pezeshkian in a runoff. However, polls suggest otherwise, and this mentality of underestimating Pezeshkian is not based on reality.

 

If the election goes to a second round, the trends and experiences of previous elections show that Pezeshkian supporters will be more hopeful and participate even more. In the 2005 Presidential election, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani lost to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a runoff. In the first round of the election, Rafsanjani gathered more votes but eventually lost in the runoff.

 

The trends in many polls show that if conservatives reach a consensus on a single candidate, the possibility of them winning in the first round is really high. Conservatives should rely on a single method of polling to make a decision on a single candidate rather than making excuses.

 

For conservatives, the key to making a sound decision lies in two crucial factors: the potential vote share of each candidate and the impact of a candidate’s withdrawal on the race. By considering these, they can better navigate the complex political landscape.

 


By WANA writer


WANA - Iran's presidential election 2024

WANA – Iran’s presidential election 2024